Patriots vs Bills NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Bills NFL picks and predictions cover the (1-2) New England Patriots at the (3-0) Buffalo Bills on Sunday, October 4th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 4 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Patriots vs Bills NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New England is priced at +6.5 (+108) on the spread with a +275 moneyline, while Buffalo is favored at -6.5 (-108) on the spread with a -285 moneyline. The total is set at 48.5, with the over priced at -108 and the under at -108.
Matchup Breakdown
New England's offense grades out near the bottom of the league against Buffalo's defense, ranking 32nd in both Anytime TDs and Pass TDs, while Drake Maye carries a strong A- matchup grade on paper despite the offense's overall struggles. Buffalo's defense grades out well, ranking 3rd against Pass Yards allowed.
Buffalo's offense grades out elite, ranking 2nd in both Anytime TDs and Rush TDs against a Patriots defense that is actually one of the league's better units, ranking 7th against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards allowed. Josh Allen's D matchup grade reflects that Patriots defensive strength, even as Buffalo remains heavily favored.
Injury Report
A. Brown (NE) – Sprain, Out (9/13).
E. Raridon (NE) – Thigh, Out (9/27).
C. Benford (BUF) – Toe, Questionable (9/27).
C. Barmore (NE) – Shoulder, Questionable (9/27).
Betting Trends
New England has covered the spread in 67% of its games while Buffalo has also covered in 67% of its games — both teams have been reliable against the number this season. The total has split evenly between over and under across each team's own games.
Our Pick
Pick: Bills -6.5. Buffalo's offense grades out top-2 in the league in multiple touchdown categories, and even with New England's defense grading out better than its record suggests, the talent gap between these two rosters is significant enough to trust Buffalo covering at home.
How We Made Our Patriots vs Bills NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Bills NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 4 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week. This approach means our picks can move throughout the week as HOF's own data updates, and we'd rather adjust a pick after new information comes in than stick with a stale one just because we published it first.