Packers vs Buccaneers NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Packers vs Buccaneers NFL picks and predictions cover the (1-2) Green Bay Packers at the (0-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, October 4th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 4 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Packers vs Buccaneers NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Green Bay is favored at -3.5 (+102) on the spread with a -163 moneyline, while Tampa Bay sits at +3.5 (-104) on the spread and +154 on the moneyline. The total is set at 39.5, with the over priced at -113 and the under at -105.
Matchup Breakdown
Green Bay's offense grades out well against Tampa Bay's defense through the air, ranking 5th in Pass Yards and 12th in Pass TDs, though the Packers' rushing attack is nearly nonexistent on paper at 32nd in both Rush Yards and Rush TDs. Tampa Bay's defense grades out strong against the run (2nd in Rush Yards allowed) but more vulnerable through the air.
Tampa Bay's offense grades out 27th in Rush+Rec Yards and 26th in Pass Yards against a Green Bay defense that is themselves vulnerable, ranking 31st against Anytime TDs and 31st against Rush TDs allowed. Baker Mayfield enters as Questionable, which adds uncertainty to an already inconsistent Buccaneers offense.
Injury Report
B. Mayfield (TB) – Dislocated, Questionable (9/27). Tampa Bay's starting quarterback carries an injury designation into this game.
J. Jacobs (GB) – Personal, Out (9/13).
M. Parsons (GB) – Surgery, Out (9/1).
D. Sills (TB) – Undisclosed, Out (8/31).
Betting Trends
Green Bay has covered the spread in none of its games this season (0%) while Tampa Bay has also gone 0% against the spread, making this a tough trend-based read. The over has hit in 67% of games in this range for both sides, supporting the market's total near 40.
Our Pick
Pick: Packers -3.5. Jordan Love's 5th-ranked passing offense against a Tampa Bay defense that's given up the 12th-most passing yards, combined with Baker Mayfield's questionable designation, tilts this matchup toward Green Bay covering a manageable number on the road.
How We Made Our Packers vs Buccaneers NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Packers vs Buccaneers NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 4 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.