Jets vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Jets vs Bears NFL picks and predictions cover the (1-2) New York Jets at the (1-1) Chicago Bears on Sunday, October 4th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 4 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Jets vs Bears NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New York is priced at +3 (-110) on the spread with a +138 moneyline, while Chicago is favored at -3 (-102) on the spread with a -144 moneyline. The total is set at 43.5, with the over priced at -108 and the under at -108.
Matchup Breakdown
The Jets' offense grades out 12th in Rush+Rec Yards and 11th in Pass Yards against a Bears defense that has struggled this season, ranking 26th in both categories allowed. New York's defense is actually one of the stronger units in this game, ranking 4th against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards allowed.
Chicago's offense grades out well on paper, ranking 4th in both Rush+Rec Yards and Anytime TDs and 1st in Rush Yards, but starting quarterback Caleb Williams is listed as Out with a strain, which significantly clouds Chicago's outlook against a Jets defense that grades out 4th against the pass.
Injury Report
C. Williams (CHI) – Strain, Out (9/27). Chicago's starting quarterback is out for this game.
B. Hall (NYJ) – Thigh, Questionable (9/27).
A. Mitchell (NYJ) – Finger, Out (9/27).
B. Brown (CHI) – Undisclosed, Out (8/31).
Betting Trends
New York has covered the spread in 33% of its games while Chicago has covered in exactly 50% of its games. The under has hit in 67% of New York's own games in this range, a trend worth weighing against Caleb Williams' uncertain status.
Our Pick
Pick: Jets +3. With Chicago's starting quarterback Caleb Williams officially out, we're not confident enough in Chicago's backup situation to lay three points, even against a Jets team that's struggled this year. New York's defense grades out top-5 against both yardage categories, giving them a real path to keeping this game within the field goal.
How We Made Our Jets vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Jets vs Bears NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 4 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week. This approach means our picks can move throughout the week as HOF's own data updates, and we'd rather adjust a pick after new information comes in than stick with a stale one just because we published it first.