Patriots vs Seahawks NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Seahawks predictions break down every angle of this Week 1 matchup, from the spread and total to the X-factor that could decide it: New England's banged-up defense trying to slow down a Seattle offense that just got more pass-heavy. Kickoff is set for 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, with the Seahawks favored by 3.5 points. For the rest of the slate, see our NFL week 1 schedule.
Patriots vs Seahawks Odds and Betting Lines
Seattle opened as a 3.5-point home favorite (-102) over New England (+3.5, -104), with the Seahawks' moneyline sitting at -174 compared to +167 for the Patriots. The total is set at 44.5, with the over and under both priced at -105. Odds move throughout the week, so it pays to shop for the Patriots vs Seahawks best odds before locking in a bet.
Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction: Key Matchup to Watch
New England is dealing with real problems on defense heading into this one. Starting outside linebacker Harold Landry III is out, and top cornerback Christian Gonzalez is questionable, which leaves the Patriots' secondary vulnerable at the worst possible time. Seattle, meanwhile, will be without starting running back Zach Charbonnet, who is out following surgery, a loss that should push Sam Darnold and the Seahawks' passing attack into an even bigger role than usual. That combination, a compromised Patriots secondary against a Seattle offense that has to throw more than it planned to, is the swing factor in this game.
On paper this is a fairly even statistical matchup. New England's offense ranks 7th in the league in rush-plus-receiving yards (348.9 per game) against a Seahawks defense that ranks 9th in yards allowed (295.4), and the Patriots' passing attack (5th, 235.9 yards per game) should find some room against a Seattle pass defense that ranks 13th (202.1 yards allowed). Drake Maye grades out as a C matchup against this Seahawks defense, while Sam Darnold gets a D matchup grade against New England, a reflection of just how thin the Patriots' secondary is right now.
Best Patriots vs Seahawks Picks and Predictions
Given the injury report, the lean here favors Seattle covering at home. The Seahawks' defense grades out as a top-two unit against the run, ranking 2nd in rush yards allowed and 1st in rush touchdowns allowed, which should limit New England's Rhamondre Stevenson-led ground game and force Drake Maye to try to beat a Seattle pass defense without much of a rushing threat behind him.
The total sits at 44.5, a number that reflects two offenses that can move the ball but two defenses playing shorthanded. With Seattle leaning even more on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is projected for a 34.9 percent target share and grades out as an F matchup for New England's defense, to replace Charbonnet's touches, the over has some appeal if the Patriots' injured secondary struggles to contain Seattle's passing game.
Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 21.
For a closer look at which Patriots and Seahawks skill players offer the best value on Week 1 prop boards, see our full Patriots vs Seahawks player props and DFS breakdown. Odds can shift throughout the week, so always confirm the latest numbers on the sports betting app.