Jets vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Jets vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions cover the (2-3) New York Jets at the (3-2) New England Patriots on Sunday, October 18th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 6 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Jets vs Patriots NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New England is favored at -7.5 (+111) on the spread with a -320 moneyline, while New York sits at +7.5 (-113) on the spread and +308 on the moneyline. The total is set at 44.5, with the over priced at -100 and the under at -108.
Matchup Breakdown
New York's offense grades out poorly against New England's defense, ranking 26th in Rush+Rec Yards, 25th in Anytime TDs, 23rd in Pass Yards, 22nd in Rush Yards, and 22nd in Pass TDs. New England's defense ranks 5th against Rush+Rec Yards, 6th against Rush Yards, and 9th against Anytime TDs, and G. Smith carries a D+ matchup grade.
New England's offense grades out better against New York's defense, ranking 8th in Rush+Rec Yards, 10th in Rush Yards, and 11th in Pass Yards. New York's defense is strong, however, ranking 4th against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards and 5th against Anytime TDs, and Maye carries a D- matchup grade with a projection of 245.6 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns.
Injury Report
B. Hall (NYJ) – Quadriceps, Out (10/9).
A. Mitchell (NYJ) – Finger, Out (10/9).
K. Sadiq (NYJ) – Concussion, Questionable (10/11).
M. Hollins (NE) – Calf, Out (10/10).
T. Henderson (NE) – Ankle, Questionable (10/11).
A. Brown (NE) – Sprain, Out (10/7).
Betting Trends
New York has covered the +7.5 spread in 80% of its games and hit the moneyline in 40%, while New England has covered the -7.5 spread in 40% of its games and hit the moneyline in 60%. The spread trend leans heavily toward the underdog.
Our Pick
Pick: Jets +7.5. A touchdown-plus spread is a lot to lay against a New York defense that ranks 4th against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards, and Maye carries a D- matchup grade. New York has covered in 80% of its games, and while the Jets are missing B. Hall and A. Mitchell, the total sits at 44.5. We like New York to keep this one inside the number.
How We Made Our Jets vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Jets vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 6 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.