Dolphins vs Colts NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Dolphins vs Colts NFL picks and predictions cover the (1-7) Miami Dolphins at the (2-7) Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 15th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 10 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Dolphins vs Colts NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Indianapolis is favored at -2.5 (-104) on the spread with a -132 moneyline, while Miami sits at +2.5 (-104) on the spread and +130 on the moneyline. The total is set at 40.5, with the over priced at -106 and the under at -104.
Matchup Breakdown
Miami's offense ranks near the bottom of the league in several categories against Indianapolis' defense, including 27th in Rush+Rec Yards at 290.0, 28th in Pass TDs, 29th in Anytime TDs, and 30th in Pass Yards, though it ranks 11th in Rush Yards at 123.3 and 16th in Rush TDs. Indianapolis' defense ranks 12th against Pass Yards at 211.8 and 20th against Rush TDs, but it ranks 22nd against Rush+Rec Yards, 24th against Pass TDs, 25th against Anytime TDs, and 27th against Rush Yards, and M. Willis carries a C- matchup grade with a projection of 174.5 passing yards, 0.8 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions.
Indianapolis' offense ranks 7th in Rush TDs at 1.3 and 16th in Rush Yards, but it ranks 26th in Rush+Rec Yards at 291.1, 27th in Anytime TDs, 28th in Pass Yards, and 32nd in Pass TDs. Miami's defense ranks 8th against Rush TDs and 16th against both Rush Yards and Pass Yards, but it ranks 17th against Rush+Rec Yards, 24th against Anytime TDs, and 31st against Pass TDs, and D. Jones carries a C matchup grade with a projection of 191.3 passing yards, 0.7 touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions.
Injury Report
D. Achane (MIA) – Surgery, Out (9/28).
J. Wright (MIA) – Quadriceps, Out (11/8).
W. Kacmarek (MIA) – Quadriceps, Questionable (11/8).
A. Pierce (IND) – Heel, Out (11/4).
M. Alie-Cox (IND) – Groin, Questionable (11/8).
Betting Trends
Miami has covered the +2.5 spread in 13% of its games and hit the moneyline in 13%, while Indianapolis has covered the -2.5 spread in 11% of its games and hit the moneyline in 22%. Indianapolis holds the better record at 2-7 versus Miami's 1-7.
Our Pick
Pick: Under 40.5 (+100). Both offenses rank in the bottom third of the league in several key categories: Miami ranks 30th in Pass Yards and 28th in Pass TDs, while Indianapolis ranks 28th in Pass Yards and 32nd in Pass TDs, and the two quarterback projections come in at just 174.5 and 191.3 passing yards. Miami's defense ranks 31st against Pass TDs, so a late score is possible, but a low total at plus-money is the better side of this game.
How We Made Our Dolphins vs Colts NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Dolphins vs Colts NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 10 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.