Bills vs Jets NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bills vs Jets NFL picks and predictions cover the (7-1) Buffalo Bills at the (2-7) New York Jets on Sunday, November 15th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 10 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Bills vs Jets NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Buffalo is favored at -7.5 (-102) on the spread with a -413 moneyline, while New York sits at +7.5 (-105) on the spread and +388 on the moneyline. The total is set at 50.5, with the over priced at -114 and the under at +100.
Matchup Breakdown
Buffalo's offense is elite against New York's defense, ranking 1st in both Anytime TDs and Rush TDs, 2nd in Rush+Rec Yards at 393.1, 3rd in Rush Yards, 10th in Pass Yards, and 19th in Pass TDs. New York's defense ranks 5th against Pass Yards at 194.0 and 11th against Rush+Rec Yards, but it ranks 16th against Rush TDs, 19th against Anytime TDs, 21st against Rush Yards, and 23rd against Pass TDs, and J. Allen carries a D- matchup grade with a projection of 256.1 passing yards, 1.6 touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions.
New York's offense has room to work against Buffalo's defense despite ranking 19th in Pass Yards, 20th in Pass TDs, 21st in Rush Yards, 22nd in Rush+Rec Yards at 320.0, 24th in Anytime TDs, and 25th in Rush TDs. Buffalo's defense ranks 10th against Rush Yards, but it ranks 19th against Rush TDs, 24th against Rush+Rec Yards at 352.1, 27th against Anytime TDs, 28th against Pass TDs, and 30th against Pass Yards at 254.7, and G. Smith carries an A matchup grade with a projection of 230.9 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions.
Injury Report
J. Palmer (BUF) – Hamstring, Out (11/7).
G. Gaines (BUF) – Calf, Questionable (11/1).
D. Dawkins (BUF) – Ribs, Questionable (11/7).
A. Anderson (BUF) – Ankle, Questionable (11/7).
G. Wilson (NYJ) – Concussion, Out (11/6).
T. Patrick (NYJ) – Coach's Decision, Out (11/8).
N. Wright (NYJ) – Back, Out (11/7).
Betting Trends
Buffalo has covered the -7.5 spread in 43% of its games and hit the moneyline in 86%, while New York has covered the +7.5 spread in 78% of its games and hit the moneyline in 22%. Buffalo holds the better record at 6-1 versus New York's 2-7.
Our Pick
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-104). New York has covered the +7.5 spread in 78% of its games, while Buffalo has covered the -7.5 spread in just 43%, and G. Smith carries an A matchup grade against a Bills defense that ranks 30th against Pass Yards and 28th against Pass TDs. Buffalo's offense ranks 1st in Anytime TDs, so the Bills can win comfortably, but a 7.5-point number is a lot to lay when Buffalo's defense has this many soft spots.
How We Made Our Bills vs Jets NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bills vs Jets NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 10 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.