Colts vs Chiefs NFL Picks and Predictions
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Kansas City for the Sunday night finale of Week 2, a matchup that comes with a significant injury storyline after Patrick Mahomes was added to the injury report. We break down the odds, matchup numbers, injuries, and betting trends to land on the best Colts vs Chiefs pick. For the rest of the slate, check out our full Week 2 NFL Schedule with odds and predictions for every game.
You can explore all of this matchup data yourself with our sports betting research app, which we used to pull every stat in this breakdown.
Table of Contents
Colts vs Chiefs Odds and Betting Lines
Kansas City is favored at home, with the Chiefs listed at -6.5 (-109) and Indianapolis getting 6.5 points at +6.5 (-109). The moneyline has Indianapolis at +260 and Kansas City at -250, while the total sits at 46.5, with both sides priced at -110.
This line comes with real uncertainty attached, given Patrick Mahomes' questionable tag, and it's worth watching for line movement as the week progresses.
Colts vs Chiefs Matchup Breakdown
Indianapolis' offense actually grades out favorably in this matchup. The Colts rank 8th in total rush and receiving yards (347.2) against a Chiefs defense that ranks 7th in yards allowed (291.4), a tight matchup on paper. Indianapolis ranks 9th in passing yards (227.8) facing a Kansas City defense that ranks 10th against the pass (195.8 allowed), while the Colts' rushing attack ranks 16th (118.4) against a Chiefs run defense that ranks 8th (105.6 allowed).
Touchdown production strongly favors Indianapolis: the Colts rank 4th in anytime touchdowns (3.1) against a Kansas City defense that ranks 6th in touchdowns allowed (1.9), and an elite 2nd in rushing touchdowns (1.6) against a Chiefs defense ranked 11th in rushing touchdowns allowed (0.8). Indianapolis is weaker at 16th in passing touchdowns (1.5), but even there Kansas City ranks a strong 4th in touchdowns allowed (1.1).
At quarterback, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes is questionable after undergoing a procedure, though he still carries an A Matchup grade with projections of 255.3 passing yards, 1.1 touchdowns, and 1.3 interceptions if he plays. Indianapolis' Daniel Jones carries a D Matchup grade, projected for 218.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions.
Colts vs Chiefs Injury Report
The headline injury is Patrick Mahomes (surgery), who is questionable after appearing on the injury report on 9/8, a development worth monitoring closely before kickoff. Kansas City is also missing Jaylen Caldwell (soreness), Jason Holiday (undisclosed), and Jack Gyllenborg (knee), all ruled out. Indianapolis has two questionable tags of its own in Alec Pierce (heel) and Drew Ogletree (neck), plus Colton Towt (undisclosed), who is already out.
Colts vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Indianapolis has covered the spread in 71% of its games, while Kansas City has covered as a favorite in just 29% of its games, one of the more lopsided cover splits on this week's slate. Straight up, the Colts have won 47% of their games and the Chiefs have won 35% of theirs.
The total has trended over in Indianapolis games (65% over) but under in Kansas City games (65% under), suggesting the total could hinge heavily on which team's tendencies dominate the game flow.
Final Prediction and Pick
Between Indianapolis' strong underlying matchup numbers, its excellent cover rate as an underdog, and the uncertainty around Mahomes, the Colts getting 6.5 points looks like one of the more attractive plays on the board this week. If Mahomes is out or limited, this number could move further in Indianapolis' favor. On the total, the conflicting over/under trends make this one worth watching closer to kickoff for the latest injury news.
For a closer look at Sunday night's skill-position volume, be sure to check our Colts vs Chiefs player props breakdown for the best individual player bets in this matchup.