Dolphins vs Raiders NFL Picks and Predictions

The Dolphins enter their Week 1 matchup against the Raiders with significant defensive question marks, as DT Zach Sieler, LB Jordyn Brooks, and SAF Lonnie Johnson Jr. are all listed as questionable. That uncertainty creates a potential opening for a Raiders offense that will roll out its fully healthy starters, including QB Kirk Cousins and TE Brock Bowers. Miami will likely lean on running back D. Achane to control tempo and take pressure off a defense that could be shorthanded on Sunday, September 13.

Dolphins vs Raiders Odds and Spread

Vegas has installed the Raiders as modest home favorites for this AFC-versus-AFC opener. LV Raiders are priced at -3.5 (-102) on the spread, with a moneyline of -182 and the total set at Under 40.5 (-110). The Dolphins sit at +3.5 (-104) on the spread, +170 on the moneyline, and Over 40.5 (-109) on the total. Betting trends from 2025 through 2027 show Dolphins moneyline bettors at 41% compared to just 18% on the Raiders moneyline, while the Dolphins spread has drawn 53% of action versus only 12% on the Raiders side. The total has leaned Over far more often in this series, with 71% of bets landing on the Over compared to 29% on the Under.

Team Comparison

Miami's offense faces a tough test against a Raiders defense that grades out favorably in several key areas. The Dolphins rank 26th in passing yards (180.5) against a Raiders pass defense that sits 12th (201.0 yards allowed), and Miami's 23rd-ranked passing touchdown rate (1.4) lines up against a Raiders defense that also ranks 12th in touchdowns allowed (1.4). On the ground, Miami's 12th-ranked rushing attack (121.2 yards) faces a more generous Raiders run defense ranked 18th (118.2 yards allowed), and the Raiders defense ranks just 31st against rushing touchdowns (1.3 allowed) compared to Miami's 20th-ranked rushing touchdown offense (0.8). In total yardage, Miami's offense ranks 20th (312.6 rush and receiving yards) against a Raiders defense ranked 13th (315.5), and Miami's anytime touchdown offense ranks 22nd (2.2) against a Raiders defense ranked 21st (2.6).

Quarterback Breakdown

K. Cousins draws a favorable C+ matchup projection against Miami, with expectations of 189.9 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, and just 0.6 interceptions. On the other side, M. Willis faces a much tougher D+ matchup projection against the Raiders defense, projected for only 105.5 passing yards and 0.8 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions. That gap in projected passing production is one of the clearest statistical edges in this matchup and a big reason the Raiders are favored on the road side of the ledger.

Key Players to Watch

D. Achane projects for 128.3 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns in a C+ matchup, and he figures to be the focal point of Miami's offensive game plan given the questions surrounding the passing attack. For the Raiders, B. Bowers is projected for 57.1 total yards and 0.9 touchdowns in an A- matchup, leading a Raiders passing attack that should have plenty of opportunities against a Miami defense dealing with injuries. A. Jeanty, listed as questionable, still projects for 79 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns in an A- matchup if he is able to suit up.

Injury Report

The injury report for this game includes A. Jeanty (sprain, questionable, updated 8/23), O. Gordon (ribs, questionable, updated 8/23), and D. Thornton (undisclosed, questionable, updated 8/16). Miami's defense also enters the season with its own question marks at multiple starting positions, which factors heavily into how much Miami's offense may need to carry the load in this opener.

Dolphins vs Raiders Prediction

Given the matchup edges at quarterback and the depth concerns on Miami's defense, the Raiders look like the more complete team on paper heading into Sunday, September 13. Expect Las Vegas to lean on Cousins and Bowers through the air while Jeanty and the run game control tempo, while Miami's offense will need a big performance from Achane to keep pace on the scoreboard. We are projecting a final score of Raiders 24, Dolphins 20, with Las Vegas covering the -3.5 spread. Bettors looking for more matchup context can check the full NFL week 1 schedule for every kickoff time and opening line this weekend, and be sure to check our Dolphins vs Raiders player props breakdown for individual player angles before placing any wagers on the HOF Bets sports betting app.