Texans vs Colts NFL Player Props and DFS Picks
Our Texans vs Colts NFL player props and DFS picks target the best anytime touchdown scorer plays for this Week 3 matchup, using HOF's usage share, matchup grade, and touchdown projection data.
Houston visits Indianapolis in Week 3, and we are picking two players to score a touchdown in this matchup using HOF's matchup grades, usage share, and injury data. For the rest of the slate, check out our full Week 3 NFL Schedule with odds and predictions for every game.
Below, we're using data from HOF's sports betting research app — including usage share, matchup grades, and touchdown projections — to make our top anytime touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays for this game. We aren't listing specific prop odds here since sportsbook lines for individual player props vary by book, but these are the two players we'd target to find the end zone. For our full spread, moneyline, and total breakdown of this game, check out our Texans vs Colts NFL Picks and Predictions article.
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Texans vs Colts Player Props Overview
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor carries the highest touchdown projection in this game at 0.8, with 102.8 total yards projected. Texans receiver Nico Collins is Houston's top touchdown threat at 0.5 despite a Questionable tag, backed by a strong A- matchup grade against Indianapolis' pass defense.
Player Prop Pick 1: Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Jonathan Taylor leads all players in this matchup with 102.8 total yards and a game-high 0.8 touchdown projection, even with a modest C+ matchup grade against Houston's run defense. Taylor's workload as Indianapolis' clear lead back keeps him heavily involved on the ground and in the passing game, giving him a reliable path to the end zone.
Player Prop Pick 2: Nico Collins (HOU)
Nico Collins leads Houston's receiving corps in target share at 24.6% and carries a 0.5 touchdown projection with 73.1 total yards, backed by an A- matchup grade against Indianapolis' pass defense. Collins is listed as Questionable with a strain, but as Houston's clear top target when healthy enough to play, he remains the Texans' best bet to find the end zone.
How We Pick Our Texans vs Colts NFL Player Props and DFS Picks
Our Texans vs Colts NFL player props and DFS picks are built the same way every week: directly from HOF's sports betting research app, not guesswork. We start with HOF's touchdown projections for every skill player involved in the game, then check each player's usage share — their share of their team's carries, targets, or red zone touches — since usage is one of the clearest signals of touchdown opportunity.
From there we layer in HOF's matchup grade for that player's unit against the opposing defense, which tells us whether the matchup itself favors more or fewer scoring chances. We deliberately don't quote a specific touchdown-scorer prop price here, since sportsbook odds on individual player props vary from book to book and change throughout the week, but the two players we highlight are the ones the data points to as the best bets to find the end zone. We update these picks as HOF's projections, usage shares, and matchup grades change closer to kickoff.
Touchdown scorer props tend to carry more variance than spread or moneyline bets, since a single game script can shut out a projected scorer entirely — which is why we weigh usage share and matchup grade together rather than leaning on touchdown projections alone. A player can hold a strong red zone role and still see the game flow away from him if the score gets out of hand.
For DFS purposes, that same combination of usage share and matchup grade tends to correlate with a solid roster floor, since high-usage players in favorable matchups are more likely to see the volume needed to pay off even on weeks when they don't find the end zone.