Bills vs Vikings NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bills vs Vikings NFL picks and predictions cover the (6-1) Buffalo Bills at the (6-1) Minnesota Vikings on Monday, November 9th at 8:15 PM ET. Check out our full Week 9 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Bills vs Vikings NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Buffalo is favored at -3.5 (+111) on the spread with a -170 moneyline, while Minnesota sits at +3.5 (-115) on the spread and +163 on the moneyline. The total is set at 46.5, with the over priced at +100 and the under at -110.
Matchup Breakdown
Buffalo's offense is one of the strongest in the league against Minnesota's defense, ranking 1st in both Anytime TDs at 3.9 and Rush TDs at 2.3, 2nd in Rush+Rec Yards at 393.1, 3rd in Rush Yards, 10th in Pass Yards, and 19th in Pass TDs. Minnesota's defense is just as strong, ranking 1st against both Anytime TDs at 1.3 and Pass TDs at 0.6, 2nd against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards, 6th against Rush TDs, and 17th against Rush Yards, and J. Allen carries an F matchup grade with a projection of 256.1 passing yards, 1.6 touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions.
Minnesota's offense faces a much easier matchup on paper, though its own numbers are weak, ranking 31st in Pass Yards, 32nd in Rush TDs, 30th in Anytime TDs, 29th in Rush+Rec Yards, 24th in Pass TDs, and 17th in Rush Yards. Buffalo's defense ranks 30th against Pass Yards at 254.7, 28th against Pass TDs, 27th against Anytime TDs, and 24th against Rush+Rec Yards, though it ranks 10th against Rush Yards and 19th against Rush TDs, and K. Murray carries an A matchup grade with a projection of 170.3 passing yards, 0.8 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions while listed as questionable.
Injury Report
K. Murray (MIN) – Hamstring, Questionable (11/1).
J. Oliver (MIN) – Surgery, Out (9/29).
D. Claiborne (MIN) – Coach's Decision, Out (10/25).
D. Moore (BUF) – Knee, Questionable (11/1).
J. Palmer (BUF) – Hamstring, Questionable (11/1).
Betting Trends
Buffalo has covered the -3 spread in 57% of its games and hit the moneyline in 86%, while Minnesota has covered the +3 spread in 86% of its games and hit the moneyline in 86%. Both teams hold the same 6-1 record.
Our Pick
Pick: Under 46.5 (-105). Minnesota's defense ranks 1st against both Anytime TDs and Pass TDs and 2nd against both Rush+Rec Yards and Pass Yards, while Minnesota's own offense ranks 31st in Pass Yards and 32nd in Rush TDs and K. Murray is listed as questionable with a projection of 170.3 passing yards. Buffalo's offense is elite, but J. Allen carries an F matchup grade against this defense, so we like the points to be hard to come by in this one.
How We Made Our Bills vs Vikings NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bills vs Vikings NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 9 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.