Buccaneers vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Buccaneers vs Bears NFL picks and predictions cover the (3-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the (5-2) Chicago Bears on Sunday, November 8th at 8:20 PM ET. Check out our full Week 9 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Buccaneers vs Bears NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Chicago is favored at -6 (-107) on the spread with a -257 moneyline, while Tampa Bay sits at +6 (-104) on the spread and +245 on the moneyline. The total is set at 46.5, with the over priced at -106 and the under at +100.
Matchup Breakdown
Tampa Bay's offense faces a mixed matchup against Chicago's defense, ranking 1st in Rush Yards at 168.6 and 9th in Rush TDs, but 25th in Rush+Rec Yards, 26th in Anytime TDs, 30th in Pass TDs, and 32nd in Pass Yards at 131.4. Chicago's defense ranks 4th against Rush Yards at 87.6, 9th against Rush+Rec Yards, 13th against Anytime TDs, 14th against Rush TDs, 19th against Pass Yards, and 22nd against Pass TDs, and B. Mayfield carries a C+ matchup grade with a projection of 135.8 passing yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions.
Chicago's offense is strong on the ground against Tampa Bay's defense, ranking 2nd in both Rush Yards at 154.3 and Rush TDs at 2.0, 3rd in Rush+Rec Yards at 390.7, 8th in Anytime TDs, 13th in Pass Yards, and 26th in Pass TDs. Tampa Bay's defense is also strong, ranking 1st against Rush TDs at 0.4, 2nd against Rush Yards at 80.0, 3rd against Rush+Rec Yards, 7th against Anytime TDs, 9th against Pass Yards, and 10th against Pass TDs, and C. Williams carries a D+ matchup grade with a projection of 255 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions.
Injury Report
K. Monangai (CHI) – Sprain, Out (10/31).
C. Kmet (CHI) – Knee, Out (10/23).
D. Jackson (CHI) – Ankle, Questionable (10/31).
E. Egbuka (TB) – Foot, Out (10/30).
Y. Diaby (TB) – Sprain, Questionable (11/1).
Betting Trends
Tampa Bay has covered the +5.5 spread in 63% of its games and hit the moneyline in 38%, while Chicago has covered the -5.5 spread in 71% of its games and hit the moneyline in 71%. Chicago holds the better record at 5-2 versus Tampa Bay's 3-5.
Our Pick
Pick: Under 46.5 (-100). Tampa Bay's offense ranks 32nd in Pass Yards and 30th in Pass TDs, and B. Mayfield carries a projection of 135.8 passing yards and 0.6 touchdowns, while Tampa Bay's defense ranks 1st against Rush TDs and 2nd against Rush Yards and Chicago's defense ranks 4th against Rush Yards. With K. Monangai and C. Kmet out for Chicago and E. Egbuka out for Tampa Bay, we like this game to stay under at even money.
How We Made Our Buccaneers vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Buccaneers vs Bears NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 9 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.