Raiders vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Raiders vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions cover the (3-1) Las Vegas Raiders at the (2-2) New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 5 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Raiders vs Patriots NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New England is favored at -3.5 (-100) on the spread with a -174 moneyline, while Las Vegas sits at +3.5 (-104) on the spread and +170 on the moneyline. The total is set at 44.5, with the over priced at -113 and the under at -100.
Matchup Breakdown
Las Vegas's offense grades out well through the air against New England's defense, ranking 2nd in Pass TDs, 9th in Pass Yards, 12th in Anytime TDs, and 14th in Rush+Rec Yards. New England's defense is strong against the pass, however, ranking 5th in Pass Yards allowed and 6th in Rush+Rec Yards allowed, while Las Vegas's rushing offense lags, ranking 25th in Rush Yards and 29th in Rush TDs.
New England's offense grades out lower against Las Vegas's defense, ranking 29th in Anytime TDs, 27th in Pass TDs, and 27th in Rush TDs, though it ranks 10th in Rush Yards. Las Vegas's defense ranks 28th against Rush Yards, so New England's best path is on the ground, where Maye holds a C- matchup grade as a passer.
Injury Report
J. Bech (LV) – Fracture, Out (9/29).
J. Nailor (LV) – Concussion, Questionable (10/4).
M. Hollins (NE) – Calf, Questionable (10/4).
E. Raridon (NE) – Ankle, Questionable (10/4).
Betting Trends
Las Vegas has covered the +3.5 spread in 100% of its games and hit the moneyline in 75%, while New England has covered the -3.5 spread in just 25% of its games and hit the moneyline in 50%. The data leans toward the underdog in this spot.
Our Pick
Pick: Raiders +3.5. Las Vegas's passing offense ranks 2nd in Pass TDs, with Cousins projecting for 256.5 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns, against a New England defense that ranks 12th in Pass TDs allowed. New England's offense ranks 29th in Anytime TDs, and the Raiders have covered in every game HOF tracks this season, so we like the points.
How We Made Our Raiders vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Raiders vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 5 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.