Patriots vs Jaguars NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Jaguars NFL picks and predictions break down every angle of this Week 3 matchup, from the point spread and moneyline to the total, injury report, and betting trends.
The New England Patriots travel to Jacksonville as underdogs in Week 3. We break down the odds, matchup numbers, injuries, and betting trends to land on the best Patriots vs Jaguars pick. For the rest of the slate, check out our full Week 3 NFL Schedule with odds and predictions for every game.
You can explore all of this matchup data yourself with our sports betting research app, which we used to pull every stat in this breakdown. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Patriots vs Jaguars NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
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Patriots vs Jaguars Odds and Betting Lines
Jacksonville is a 2.5-point home favorite, with New England getting +2.5 (-106) and the Jaguars at -2.5 (-109). On the moneyline, the Patriots are priced at +120 while Jacksonville sits at -130. The total for this game is 46.5, with the Over at -104 and the Under at -113.
Patriots vs Jaguars Matchup Breakdown
Over their last three games, the Patriots offense ranks 20th in rush-plus-receiving yards (290.3) against a Jaguars defense that ranks 7th in yards allowed in that category (264.5). New England ranks 25th in anytime touchdowns scored (1.5) against a Jacksonville defense ranked 13th in anytime touchdowns allowed (1.8). Through the air, the Patriots rank 17th in passing yards (192.5) against a Jaguars defense ranked 11th in passing yards allowed (168.8), while on the ground New England ranks 16th in rushing yards (111.8) against a Jacksonville run defense ranked 8th in yards allowed (86.5). The Patriots rank 17th in passing touchdowns (1.3) against a Jaguars defense ranked 14th in passing touchdowns allowed (1.0), and dead last at 30th in rushing touchdowns (0.3) against a Jacksonville defense ranked 13th in rushing touchdowns allowed (0.8).
At quarterback, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence carries a B- matchup grade with projections of 246.1 passing yards, 2.6 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions, while New England's Drake Maye carries a C matchup grade with projections of 227 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, and 0.9 interceptions. Among the top skill players, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has an F matchup grade with projections of 92.8 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns, Jaguars receiver Parker Washington has a B- matchup grade with projections of 78.2 total yards and 0.6 touchdowns, and Patriots receiver A.J. Brown, who is listed as Out, carries a B matchup grade.
Patriots vs Jaguars Injury Report
New England's injury report is led by receiver A.J. Brown (sprain, Out, 9/13), per HOF's injury data for this matchup.
Jacksonville's report includes receiver Jakobi Meyers (thumb, Questionable, 9/17) and Brian Thomas Jr. (shoulder, Questionable, 9/17).
Patriots vs Jaguars Betting Trends
Historically, New England has covered the spread in 77% of its games in this kind of spot, while Jacksonville has covered in 68% of its games as a favorite, based on HOF's trend data. On the total, games involving the Patriots have gone Under 59% of the time, while games involving the Jaguars have gone Over 58% of the time.
Our Pick: Patriots vs Jaguars
Our pick for this game is the Patriots to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. New England has covered the spread at a 77% clip in this type of spot, and Drake Maye's C matchup grade is respectable against a tough Jaguars defense. Jacksonville is the better overall team here, but the Patriots have been live dogs, and this line is close enough that New England covering doesn't require an outright upset. Pick: Patriots +2.5.
For player-specific plays in this game, see our Patriots vs Jaguars touchdown scorer picks, where we single out two players who are set up to find the end zone.
How We Made Our Patriots vs Jaguars NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Jaguars NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 3 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.