Falcons vs Packers NFL Player Props and DFS Picks
Our Falcons vs Packers NFL player props and DFS picks target the best anytime touchdown scorer plays for this Week 3 matchup, using HOF's usage share, matchup grade, and touchdown projection data.
Green Bay hosts Atlanta on Thursday Night Football to open Week 3, and we are picking two players to score a touchdown in this matchup using HOF's matchup grades, usage share, and injury data. For the rest of the slate, check out our full Week 3 NFL Schedule with odds and predictions for every game.
Below, we're using data from HOF's sports betting research app — including usage share, matchup grades, and touchdown projections — to make our top anytime touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays for this game. We aren't listing specific prop odds here since sportsbook lines for individual player props vary by book, but these are the two players we'd target to find the end zone. For our full spread, moneyline, and total breakdown of this game, check out our Falcons vs Packers NFL Picks and Predictions article.
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Falcons vs Packers Player Props Overview
Green Bay's defense ranks 32nd in the NFL, dead last, in anytime touchdowns allowed over its last three games (3.5 per game), which opens the door for Atlanta's skill players, while Atlanta's defense ranks 5th against the run but 29th against the pass in touchdowns allowed. Among the players in this matchup, Green Bay wide receiver Christian Watson carries the highest touchdown projection at 1.0, followed by Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson at 0.8. Both players also carry significant roles in their team's passing-game usage: Watson leads all Packers pass catchers with a 20.0% target share, and Robinson is third on the Falcons in target share at 21.0% to go with his lead role in the backfield.
Player Prop Pick 1: Christian Watson (GB)
Christian Watson carries a C+ matchup grade and the highest projected touchdown total of any player in this game at 1.0, with 67.7 total yards projected. He leads the Packers in target share at 20.0% (5.8 targets per game), giving him both the volume and the matchup edge to find the end zone against an Atlanta defense that has been generous to opposing receivers.
Player Prop Pick 2: Bijan Robinson (ATL)
Bijan Robinson carries a C+ matchup grade with 141.3 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns projected, the second-highest touchdown projection in this game. Robinson leads Atlanta's backfield and ranks third on the team in target share at 21.0% (6.3 targets per game), and he gets to face a Green Bay defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in anytime touchdowns allowed over its last three games, a strong setup for him to score.
How We Pick Our Falcons vs Packers NFL Player Props and DFS Picks
Our Falcons vs Packers NFL player props and DFS picks are built the same way every week: directly from HOF's sports betting research app, not guesswork. We start with HOF's touchdown projections for every skill player involved in the game, then check each player's usage share — their share of their team's carries, targets, or red zone touches — since usage is one of the clearest signals of touchdown opportunity. From there we layer in HOF's matchup grade for that player's unit against the opposing defense, which tells us whether the matchup itself favors more or fewer scoring chances. We deliberately don't quote a specific touchdown-scorer prop price here, since sportsbook odds on individual player props vary from book to book and change throughout the week, but the two players we highlight are the ones the data points to as the best bets to find the end zone. We update these picks as HOF's projections, usage shares, and matchup grades change closer to kickoff.
Touchdown scorer props tend to carry more variance than spread or moneyline bets, since a single game script can shut out a projected scorer entirely — which is why we weigh usage share and matchup grade together rather than leaning on touchdown projections alone. A player can hold a strong red zone role and still see the game flow away from him if the score gets out of hand. For DFS purposes, that same combination of usage share and matchup grade tends to correlate with a solid roster floor, since high-usage players in favorable matchups are more likely to see the volume needed to pay off even on weeks when they don't find the end zone.