Dolphins vs Jets NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Dolphins vs Jets NFL picks and predictions cover the (0-5) Miami Dolphins at the (2-4) New York Jets on Sunday, October 25th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 7 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Dolphins vs Jets NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New York is favored at -5.5 (-100) on the spread with a -212 moneyline, while Miami sits at +5.5 (-104) on the spread and +208 on the moneyline. The total is set at 39.5, with the over priced at -106 and the under at -108 — one of the lowest totals on the Week 7 slate.
Matchup Breakdown
Miami's offense grades out near the bottom of the league against New York's defense, ranking 32nd in Pass TDs, 31st in both Anytime TDs and Pass Yards, and 28th in Rush+Rec Yards, though it ranks 10th in both Rush Yards and Rush TDs. New York's defense ranks 4th against Pass Yards and 11th against both Rush+Rec Yards and Anytime TDs, but it ranks 23rd against Rush Yards, and Willis carries a D- matchup grade with a projection of 169.8 passing yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
New York's offense also grades out in the lower half of the league against Miami's defense, ranking 20th in Rush TDs, 22nd in Pass Yards, 23rd in Rush Yards, 24th in Pass TDs, 25th in Rush+Rec Yards, and 26th in Anytime TDs. Miami's defense ranks 28th against Pass TDs and 24th against Anytime TDs, and G. Smith carries a C- matchup grade with a projection of 222.7 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns.
Injury Report
D. Achane (MIA) – Surgery, Out (9/28).
B. Hall (NYJ) – Quadriceps, Out (10/16).
C. Douglas (MIA) – Ankle, Questionable (10/13).
Betting Trends
Miami has covered the +5.5 spread in 20% of its games and hit the moneyline in 0%, while New York has covered the -5.5 spread in 17% of its games and hit the moneyline in 33%. Neither team has been reliable against the number, and Miami is still looking for its first win at 0-5 versus New York's 2-4.
Our Pick
Pick: Under 39.5. Neither offense has a clear path to a big number: Miami ranks 31st in Pass Yards and 32nd in Pass TDs, with Willis projecting for 169.8 passing yards and 0.4 touchdowns, while New York ranks 25th in Rush+Rec Yards and 26th in Anytime TDs, with G. Smith projecting for 222.7 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns. D. Achane is out for Miami and B. Hall is out for New York, which thins both backfields. We like this game to stay below a low total.
How We Made Our Dolphins vs Jets NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Dolphins vs Jets NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 7 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.