Commanders vs Cowboys NFL Picks and Predictions
The Washington Commanders head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a Week 2 NFC East showdown with one of the higher totals on the board. We break down the odds, matchup numbers, injuries, and betting trends to land on the best Commanders vs Cowboys pick. For the rest of the slate, check out our full Week 2 NFL Schedule with odds and predictions for every game.
You can explore all of this matchup data yourself with our sports betting research app, which we used to pull every stat in this breakdown.
Table of Contents
Commanders vs Cowboys Odds and Betting Lines
Dallas is favored at home, with the Cowboys listed at -4.5 (-105) and Washington getting 4.5 points at +4.5 (-105). The moneyline has Washington at +191 and Dallas at -205, while the total sits at 51.5, the highest total on this week's slate, with the over priced at -110 and the under at -105.
A total north of 51 points signals oddsmakers expect both offenses to move the ball, which lines up with a Dallas defense that has struggled early in the underlying matchup numbers.
Commanders vs Cowboys Matchup Breakdown
Dallas' defense has been a significant weak spot early in the season. Washington ranks 27th in total rush and receiving yards (293.6) against a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed (368.0). The Commanders rank 24th in passing yards (184.1) facing a Dallas defense that ranks dead last at 32nd against the pass (251.5 allowed), while Washington's rushing attack ranks a strong 4th (135.1) against a Cowboys run defense that ranks 23rd (126.1 allowed).
Touchdown production favors Washington in this matchup: the Commanders rank 18th in anytime touchdowns (2.3) against a Dallas defense that ranks 32nd in touchdowns allowed (3.5), and 7th in rushing touchdowns (1.2) against a Cowboys defense ranked dead last at 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed (1.4). Washington's passing touchdown output is weaker at 28th (1.1), but even there Dallas ranks 31st in touchdowns allowed (2.1).
At quarterback, Dallas' Dak Prescott carries an A- Matchup grade with projections of 267.1 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. Washington's Jayden Daniels carries an A+ Matchup grade, though his statistical projection of 115.5 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception is notably light, suggesting the model expects a run-heavy game plan for the Commanders.
Commanders vs Cowboys Injury Report
Washington has several injuries to monitor, led by running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin), who is questionable after appearing on the report on 9/9. Jaret McNichols (quadriceps), Tyler Amos (sprain), and J. Newton (surgery) are all already ruled out for the Commanders. Dallas is dealing with two absences of its own, with tight end George Fant (surgery) and D. Rogers (knee) both out.
Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Trends
Washington has covered the spread in 47% of its games, while Dallas has covered as a favorite in just 24% of its games, a notably low rate for a home favorite. Straight up, the Commanders have won 29% of their games and the Cowboys have won 44% of theirs.
The total has trended over in Dallas games (59% over) but under in Washington games (59% under), which fits with a total this high — the direction likely depends on which team's offense controls the game script.
Final Prediction and Pick
With Dallas' defense grading out poorly across nearly every matchup category and Washington's rushing attack in a strong spot, we like the Commanders to keep this one close and have real value at plus money on the moneyline. On the total, Dallas' low cover rate as a favorite combined with a leaky defense on both sides points toward the over as the more attractive side.
For a closer look at Sunday's skill-position volume, be sure to check our Commanders vs Cowboys player props breakdown for the best individual player bets in this matchup.