Colts vs Jaguars NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Colts vs Jaguars NFL picks and predictions cover the (2-5) Indianapolis Colts at the (4-2) Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, November 1st at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 8 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Colts vs Jaguars NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Jacksonville is favored at -7.5 (-106) on the spread with a -344 moneyline, while Indianapolis sits at +7.5 (+100) on the spread and +335 on the moneyline. The total is set at 46.5, with the over priced at -110 and the under at +100.
Matchup Breakdown
Indianapolis' offense grades out poorly against Jacksonville's defense, ranking 31st in Pass TDs, 25th in Rush+Rec Yards, Anytime TDs, and Pass Yards, and 14th in Rush Yards, though it ranks 3rd in Rush TDs. Jacksonville's defense is strong against the run and in the end zone, ranking 1st against Rush Yards, 4th against Anytime TDs, and 9th against Rush TDs, but it ranks 30th against Pass Yards, and D. Jones carries an A matchup grade with a projection of 199.7 passing yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Jacksonville's offense grades out well against Indianapolis' defense, ranking 3rd in Pass TDs, 7th in Anytime TDs, 10th in Rush+Rec Yards, and 14th in Pass Yards, though it ranks 24th in Rush TDs. Indianapolis' defense ranks 23rd against Rush Yards and 19th against Pass TDs, and Lawrence carries a D+ matchup grade with a projection of 246.7 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns.
Injury Report
T. Warren (IND) – Groin, Out (10/23).
A. Gould (IND) – Concussion, Out (10/22).
Betting Trends
Indianapolis has covered the +7.5 spread in 71% of its games and hit the moneyline in 29%, while Jacksonville has covered the -7.5 spread in just 33% of its games and hit the moneyline in 67%. Jacksonville holds the large edge in record at 4-2 versus Indianapolis' 2-5.
Our Pick
Pick: Colts +7.5. Jacksonville has covered in only 33% of its games while Indianapolis has covered in 71%, and D. Jones carries an A matchup grade against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th against Pass Yards. Indianapolis ranks 3rd in Rush TDs, and Jacksonville's passing attack faces a Colts defense ranked 13th against Pass Yards. Jacksonville's defense ranks 1st against Rush Yards, which is a real obstacle, but a touchdown-plus spread is more than this matchup calls for. We like the Colts to take the points.
How We Made Our Colts vs Jaguars NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Colts vs Jaguars NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 8 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.