Bears vs Packers NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bears vs Packers NFL picks and predictions cover the (3-1) Chicago Bears at the (2-2) Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 11th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 5 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Bears vs Packers NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Chicago is favored at -2.5 (-108) on the spread with a -135 moneyline, while Green Bay sits at +2.5 (-104) on the spread and +136 on the moneyline. The total is set at 44.5, with the over priced at -105 and the under at -112 — a tight divisional spread for a game both teams need.
Matchup Breakdown
Chicago's offense grades out as one of the best in the league against Green Bay's defense, ranking 1st in Rush+Rec Yards, 1st in Rush Yards, and 2nd in Rush TDs. Green Bay's defense is vulnerable on the ground, ranking 29th against Rush Yards and 31st against Rush TDs, though it holds up better through the air, ranking 4th against Pass Yards.
Green Bay's offense, on the other hand, grades out poorly against Chicago's defense, ranking 32nd in both Rush Yards and Rush TDs, and 25th in Anytime TDs. Chicago's defense ranks 3rd against Rush+Rec Yards, 3rd against Pass Yards, 3rd against Pass TDs, and 4th against Anytime TDs, which is the clearest statistical edge in this matchup.
Injury Report
K. Monangai (CHI) – Thumb, Questionable (10/4).
C. Brooks (GB) – Ankle, Questionable (10/4).
J. Reed (GB) – Surgery, Out (9/30).
E. Cooper (GB) – Achilles, Doubtful (10/4).
Betting Trends
Chicago has covered the -2.5 spread in 75% of its games and hit the moneyline in 75%, while Green Bay has covered the +2.5 spread in 50% of its games and hit the moneyline in 50%. The data leans toward Chicago, which also holds the better record at 3-1.
Our Pick
Pick: Bears -2.5. Chicago's offense ranks 1st in Rush+Rec Yards and Rush Yards and 2nd in Rush TDs, and it faces a Green Bay defense that ranks 29th against Rush Yards and 31st against Rush TDs. Green Bay's offense ranks 32nd in Rush Yards and Rush TDs against a Chicago defense that grades out top-4 in nearly every touchdown category. We like the Bears to cover the short number.
How We Made Our Bears vs Packers NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Bears vs Packers NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 5 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.