This article looks at the top player props for the weekend. By analyzing recent hit rates, head-to-head history, and current player form, the following breakdowns highlight the strongest data-backed opportunities across the board.
The first prop looks at the Buffalo Sabres taking on the Montreal Canadiens in Game 6 of their series, with Montreal leading 3 to 2. All eyes are on the Canadiens as they look to take advantage of a rocky Buffalo defense, specifically targeting the Sabres' goaltending. The prop to move forward with is Alex Newhook to record 2+ shots on goal. He is hot right now, averaging one goal and 1.2 points per game, and in his last five, he is averaging 3.4 shots per game with an 80% L5 hit rate and a 70% head to head hit rate. This average is very impressive given his last four games have all been playoff matchups. This high intensity is promising heading into Game 6 where the Canadiens are looking to close out the series.
The Arizona Diamondbacks continue their series with the Colorado Rockies after a 9 to 1 win last night. Last night, the Diamondbacks had Merrill Kelly on the mound, who pitched all 9 innings with 3 strikeouts. With Eduardo Rodriguez taking the mound today, stats show that in all 8 games he has pitched this season, he has only cleared 5.5 strikeouts once. This strong 88% hit rate for the under and an average of 4.1 strikeouts per game is why this is the pick.
Another player who is red hot is Evander. After recording a goal in a thrilling 5 to 3 loss to Miami, Evander is going to be hungry for a win. He has scored seven goals in his last five games, including a hat trick against Chicago. With an average of 1.2 goals per game, it's hard to see him not continue his run of form.
In a do or die game, the Pistons and Cavs have an exciting Game 7 matchup to decide who makes it to the Eastern Conference Finals. There is a lot of uncertainty around who will win this game, but one thing that is certain is Cade Cunningham hitting 2+ threes. Backed by a 100% hit rate in his last 5 and last 10 games, this is a strong play. After putting up six threes in his last two games respectively, he should easily clear this line of two. The last time Cade failed to reach two threes was on April 22nd, 2026. With all the pressure on to win, and factoring in Cleveland's defense against three point shooters, Cade should easily hit this mark.
After A’ja Wilson put up an insane 45 points on Wednesday, all eyes remain on her. With Brionna Jones out for the Atlanta Dream, A'ja is going to take on more of the distribution load. Over her last four games this season, she has averaged 2.8 assists, making 3+ assists the target here. She has a 75% hit rate this season, and when combined with her data from the end of last season, her L5 hit rate jumps to 80%, raising her overall average back over three. Look for her to return to her elite playmaking form after her massive Friday night performance.
Messi and Inter Miami are both in phenomenal form as they take on a spotty Portland Timbers squad that has struggled to find consistency this season. Messi has recorded three goals and three assists in his last two games. Against a Portland backline that is frankly struggling, he should easily take advantage of the open spaces created by their disorganized defense. Furthermore, Messi's experience and vision outrank the Portland defense, heavily supporting his dominance in this matchup.
