Home Run Predictions Today — July 27, 2026
If you’re wondering who will hit a home run today in MLB, three names stand out on HOF’s board: CJ Abrams, Ceddanne Rafaela and Esmerlyn Valdez. These home run predictions today combine recent home run results, matchup grades, opposing pitching data and available sportsbook prices rather than simply targeting the biggest names on the slate.
Abrams carries an A grade at +377, Rafaela is another A-grade selection at +700, and Valdez checks in with a B+ grade at +390. The screenshots also show meaningful recent production: Abrams has multiple multi-homer results in the displayed sample, Valdez has homered in four of his last 10 games, and Rafaela gets an Oakland pitching matchup with poor percentile rankings in several contact and home-run categories.
Here are HOF’s Best Home run picks for July 27
Best Home Run Picks Today
Our three MLB Home run picks today all target Over 0.5 Home Runs, with the HOF grades and current prices supplied for each selection.
| Player | Matchup | Sportsbook | Odds | HOF Grade |
| CJ Abrams | Washington vs. Toronto | ProphetX | +377 | A |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston at Oakland | Fanatics | +700 | A |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh vs. Arizona | Fanatics | +390 | B+ |
All picks are Over 0.5 Home Runs prop bets. Odds can move, so verify the current number before placing a wager.
Home Run Predictions Breakdown
CJ Abrams — Over 0.5 Home Runs vs. Toronto (+377)
The Recent Power: CJ Abrams earns an A grade from HOF at a +377 price on ProphetX. The supplied HOF research screenshot shows an average of 1.0 home run and a median of 1 across the displayed recent sample, with individual outputs of 2, 0, 0, 1 and 2 homers. That gives him three games with at least one homer in that five-game sequence and two separate two-homer performances.
The broader SGP research screen lists Abrams' 1+ home run result at 5 of 10 Washington games, corresponding to 50% on that specific L10 team-game view. That percentage should be treated as recent trend data rather than his true probability of homering in the next game.
The Price: At +377, the break-even probability is approximately 21.0%. That matters when evaluating a volatile event such as a home run: the question isn't whether Abrams is likely to homer more often than not, but whether his actual probability can beat the probability embedded in the price.
Our Take: The combination of an A grade, +377 payout and the power displayed in the recent sample puts Abrams at the top of our home run picks today.
Ceddanne Rafaela — Over 0.5 Home Runs at Oakland (+700)
The Matchup: Ceddanne Rafaela is the most aggressive value play of the three. HOF gives Rafaela an A grade, while his +700 Fanatics line implies only a 12.5% break-even probability before accounting for sportsbook hold.
The supplied matchup screen identifies Perkins as Oakland's opposing starter and provides several percentile rankings. Oakland's starter is displayed at the 15th percentile in ERA, 21st percentile in WHIP, 23rd percentile in hits and 13th percentile in home runs. His strikeout ranking is much stronger at the 90th percentile, so this isn't a matchup without risk.
The Oakland bullpen is shown at the 7th percentile in home runs, alongside the 1st percentile in ERA, 7th in WHIP and 3rd in hits. For an HR prop, that creates potential opportunity beyond Rafaela's first matchup with the starter if he gets later plate appearances against the bullpen.
The Recent Trend: The L10 screen associates Rafaela with a 2-of-10 result, or 20%, in the displayed Boston team-game sample.
Our Take: +700 makes Rafaela the biggest longshot of these three MLB Prop picks today, but the A grade and Oakland pitching profile make the number particularly interesting.
Esmerlyn Valdez — Over 0.5 Home Runs vs. Arizona (+390)
The Power Metrics: Esmerlyn Valdez enters the Arizona matchup with a B+ HOF matchup grade and a +390 price at Fanatics. His supplied L10 chart shows four home runs over his last 10 games, producing a 0.4 HR average with a median of zero.
The distribution is also useful. Valdez recorded one homer against Cleveland three times across the displayed series and another against the Cubs. In other words, the 40% L10 hit rate isn't being inflated by one huge multi-homer performance; the screenshot shows four separate one-homer games.
The +390 line corresponds to roughly a 20.4% break-even probability before hold. His four-in-10 recent run shouldn't be interpreted as a 40% projection for tonight, but it demonstrates the recent power upside behind HOF's B+ matchup grade.
The supplied SGP screen also lists Valdez's 1+ home run result at 4 of 10 Pittsburgh games, consistent with the 40% recent figure shown on his individual HOF card.
Our Take: Valdez combines the clearest L10 home-run frequency of the three screenshots with a plus-money price approaching 4-to-1, making him a strong candidate among today's HR props.
Longshot Home Run Pick Today
Home run markets are inherently high variance, and prices of +300 or longer reflect that. But when searching for who will hit a home run today in MLB, long odds can become interesting when the matchup grade and underlying pitching profile support the play.
| Player | Team | Opponent | Odds | Risk Level |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston | at Oakland | +700 | 🔴 High Risk / High Reward |
The Matchup: Rafaela is our longshot because +700 requires a break-even rate of just 12.5%, while HOF gives the matchup an A grade.
The supplied Oakland pitching ratings are the key. Starter Perkins ranks in the 13th percentile in the HR category shown by HOF, while Oakland's bullpen ranks in the 7th percentile. The starter does carry a 90th-percentile strikeout rating, which is a meaningful counterpoint: Rafaela has to put the ball in play before the matchup's contact vulnerabilities matter.
At +700, though, this isn't a prop that needs to cash frequently to justify examination. The payout and HOF grade make Rafaela the highest-upside longshot among today's three selections.
Pitchers Most Likely to Allow a Home Run Today
Identifying pitcher vulnerability can be as important as finding a hitter who has recently gone deep. For today's selections, the most detailed opposing-pitching data provided is for Boston at Oakland, where Rafaela faces Perkins and the Oakland bullpen.
| Pitching Unit | Opponent | ERA Rating | WHIP Rating | H Rating | HR Rating |
| Perkins — OAK SP | Boston | 15th percentile | 21st percentile | 23rd percentile | 13th percentile |
| Oakland Bullpen | Boston | 1st percentile | 7th percentile | 3rd percentile | 7th percentile |
Perkins' profile contains both opportunity and risk for Rafaela. His low percentile rankings across ERA, WHIP, hits and home runs are encouraging for Boston hitters, but the 90th-percentile strikeout ranking is a legitimate strength.
The bullpen numbers make the full-game prop more interesting. Oakland's relief unit sits in the 7th percentile in the displayed HR category and even lower in ERA and hits. A home-run prop can cash on any plate appearance, so the quality of the bullpen matters when evaluating Rafaela's entire game rather than just his first two trips to the plate.
Home Run Parlay Today: Abrams + Rafaela + Valdez
There is a major pricing distinction worth highlighting with these three selections.
Using the supplied individual odds of CJ Abrams +377, Ceddanne Rafaela +700 and Esmerlyn Valdez +390, multiplying the decimal prices produces approximately +18,598 as a simple independent three-leg parlay calculation. The user-supplied Fanatics parlay figure is +17,148, while the HOF screenshot's L10 probability model displays the three-leg SGP+ at 4.0%, equivalent to +2400 implied odds.
Those figures measure different things and shouldn't be treated as interchangeable.
The +2400 figure shown in the screenshot is the implied price corresponding to a 4% probability estimate. It is not the same thing as the sportsbook payout available on the parlay. Likewise, multiplying individual prices doesn't account for sportsbook pricing adjustments or any correlation treatment.
The key point is that a three-home-run parlay is extremely volatile. Even when each leg has an attractive individual case, all three players still need to homer on the same slate.
Home Run Prop Betting Tips
When building home run predictions today, recent HR results are useful, but they shouldn't be the entire handicap.
- Compare price with probability, not just hit rate. +700 implies a 12.5% break-even rate, while +390 implies about 20.4%. A bettor needs to determine whether the player's true chance exceeds the price after considering the sportsbook's margin.
- Evaluate the entire pitching staff. Starting-pitcher data matters, but hitters often face relievers for multiple plate appearances. Rafaela's screenshot is a good example because Oakland's bullpen also grades poorly in HOF's HR category.
- Don't turn L10 results into a projection. Valdez homering in four of 10 recent games is useful evidence of current power, but it does not mean he has a 40% chance to homer today.
- Check lineup, park and weather information close to game time. A lineup change affects plate-appearance expectations, while wind and park dimensions can shift the outlook for borderline fly balls.
Best Sportsbooks for Home Run Props Today
Home run bettors should shop the market because a relatively small odds difference can have a major effect on long-term expected value. The same hitter might be +390 at one book and materially higher or lower elsewhere.
For today's supplied picks, Rafaela and Valdez are priced at Fanatics, while Abrams is listed at ProphetX. Always compare the actual line available when you're ready to wager rather than assuming an earlier screenshot is still current. Promotions and odds change frequently, so current offers should be verified directly with each sportsbook before publication.
Home Run Predictions Today — FAQ
Who has the best chance to hit a home run today?
Among HOF's featured selections, CJ Abrams and Ceddanne Rafaela both carry A grades, while Esmerlyn Valdez earns a B+. Abrams is priced at +377, Rafaela at +700 and Valdez at +390. For bettors asking who will hit a home run today in MLB, those are HOF's three featured candidates.
What are the best home run prop bets today?
HOF's Best Home run picks are CJ Abrams Over 0.5 HR at +377, Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 HR at +700 and Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 HR at +390. Abrams and Rafaela receive A grades, while Valdez has a B+ matchup grade.
Which sportsbooks offer the best home run prop odds?
There isn't one sportsbook that will always have the best HR price. Today's supplied lines include ProphetX for Abrams and Fanatics for Rafaela and Valdez, but bettors should compare multiple books because home-run odds can differ substantially across the market.
How do park factors affect home run predictions?
Different ballparks can increase or suppress home-run production because of dimensions, wall height, altitude and environmental conditions. Weather can amplify those effects. Park factor should therefore be considered alongside hitter power, opposing pitcher vulnerability and the price of the prop rather than used as a standalone signal.
Looking for More MLB Betting Coverage?
The biggest takeaway from today's board is the range of ways to attack the HR market. Abrams +377 offers the strongest combination of A-grade confidence and recent multi-homer upside. Rafaela +700 is the high-payout option backed by an A grade and favorable Oakland pitching indicators. Valdez +390 brings a B+ grade after homering in four of his last 10 games.
Be sure to use our parlay optimizer tool to really get the best value out of each pick and parlay.
For anyone searching who will hit a home run today in MLB, those are the three HOF names to watch on July 27. If you’re looking for the best sports betting app, try HOF today!