Welcome to the exhilarating world of NFL betting, where the spread can turn any game into an edge-of-your-seat spectacle. Understanding NFL spreads is crucial for any fan looking to immerse themselves in the excitement of sports wagering. In this blog post, we'll delve into the mechanics of point spreads and examine how they level the playing field, turning even the most lopsided match-ups into nail-biting clashes. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a newcomer eager to understand how spreads can make or break your bets, you're in the right place to learn how to navigate this fundamental aspect of NFL betting. So, grab your playbook, and let's dissect the strategy behind beating the spread in the thrilling gridiron battles of the National Football League.
Spread betting, also known as point spread betting, involves wagering on the margin of victory in a game. Instead of merely predicting who will win or lose, you bet on whether a team will exceed or fall short of the spread, or line, set by the sportsbook. Spread betting is commonly used in sports where two teams are unevenly matched, like football and basketball. Today, our focus is going to be on football, breaking down NFL spreads.
In spread betting, sportsbooks set a spread based on the expected difference in points between two teams. The favorite team, expected to win, is assigned a minus (-) value, indicating they must win by more than a certain number of points. The underdog, expected to lose, is given a plus (+) value, meaning they can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
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Consider these NFL spreads from an upcoming matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets:
Browns: -7.5 (Favored)
Jets: +7.5 (Underdog)
In this instance, to win a bet on the Browns, they must win by over 7.5 points. Conversely, in order for a bet on the Jets to be successful, they need to win or lose by less than 7.5 points. In spread betting, you may often come across half-point spreads (like -3.5 or +7.5). These are used to ensure there's a definitive winner or loser for every bet. Without the half-point (e.g., a 3 point or 7 point spread), it's possible for a game to end exactly on the spread, causing a ‘push‘ where all bets are refunded. The use of half-points, otherwise known as ‘hooks’, eliminates this possibility.
One reason sportsbooks use spread betting is to encourage an equal amount of betting on both teams involved in a contest. The spread is set to account for the offset that occurs in odds for moneyline bets: when one team is a heavy favorite, they will often have odds that will disincentivize people from betting on them.
With a line set for the spread, either side of the bet will have comparatively low odds, typically between -105 and -110, much more enticing odds for many bettors. The spread creates a more level playing field in terms of betting, which allows sportsbooks to minimize their risk.
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When it comes to the spread, there are a number of key insights that you can research with Hall of Fame Bets, including past matchups between teams or other similar competition, how teams fare with or without certain players, or even how they have performed over the past 3, 5,10, or the full season, all valuable pieces of information when it comes to betting on NFL spreads. Let’s look at an example of how Hall of Fame Bets could help you find a spread bet for an upcoming NFL game.
Though the Jets have not had the greatest of seasons, they have still been competitive, and for the most part, have been on the right side of this spread. Over their last five games, the Jets have covered this line in 3 out of 5 games, giving them a 60% hit rate during that period. It is also worth noting that the two games they failed to cover came against the Miami Dolphins, a high-powered offense and a tough divisional rival.
Looking on the opposite side of the ball, the Browns have had a great season, coming in at 10-5, but they have not had the best success at covering this number, particularly as of late. Over their last few games, the Browns have had to turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback, who has found a lot of success, but not as much against this line. Over the four games that Flacco has started, the Browns have only covered this line once, giving them a meager 25% hit rate for this line.
Combining these pieces, we know that the Jets have managed to stick in games pretty well and that Flacco has been good statistically for the Browns, but has not put teams away enough to cover this line. Looking at the entire season, we see that the Jets have covered this line in 4 out of 6 games against teams that are similar offensively to the Browns.
Both these teams are built off their defenses and certainly have some firepower on offense, but do not typically run out on teams. In a game where the over/under line is set at a low 35 points, it is likely that the matchup will be defensive and low-scoring, which is great for an underdog to cover. All of this put together, the numbers are pointing us towards taking the Jets at +7.5 here.
NFL spreads bring a fresh dimension to sports wagering, inviting bettors to strategize based on game dynamics and team potential, rather than just victory or defeat, but by how much. With a clear understanding of spread betting and a sound strategy, you can enhance your sports betting adventure.
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All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.