Steelers vs Saints NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Steelers vs Saints NFL picks and predictions cover the (4-2) Pittsburgh Steelers at the (2-4) New Orleans Saints on Sunday, October 25th at 9:30 AM ET. Check out our full Week 7 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Steelers vs Saints NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Pittsburgh is favored at -3.5 (+108) on the spread with a -174 moneyline, while New Orleans sits at +3.5 (-113) on the spread and +170 on the moneyline. The total is set at 44.5, with the over priced at -104 and the under at -104 — a modest number for the 9:30 AM ET kickoff.
Matchup Breakdown
Pittsburgh's offense grades out around the middle of the league against New Orleans' defense, ranking 8th in Pass TDs, 18th in Pass Yards, 19th in Anytime TDs, 20th in Rush Yards, and 21st in Rush+Rec Yards. New Orleans' defense is a clear weakness, ranking 30th against both Anytime TDs and Rush Yards, 29th against Rush+Rec Yards, and 25th against Pass Yards, and Rodgers carries a B+ matchup grade with a projection of 247.8 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.
New Orleans' offense has a stronger scoring profile against Pittsburgh's defense, ranking 6th in Anytime TDs and 7th in Pass TDs, though it ranks 17th in Pass Yards and 20th in Rush+Rec Yards. Pittsburgh's defense is tough in the end zone, ranking 4th against both Anytime TDs and Pass TDs, 8th against Pass Yards, and 9th against Rush+Rec Yards, and Shough carries a D+ matchup grade with a projection of 240.5 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.
Injury Report
T. Etienne (NO) – Strain, Out (10/1).
R. Wilson (PIT) – Finger, Out (10/17).
M. Pittman (PIT) – Plantar Fasciitis, Out (10/10).
B. Skowronek (PIT) – Calf, Out (10/12).
Betting Trends
Pittsburgh has covered the -2.5 spread in 67% of its games and hit the moneyline in 67%, while New Orleans has covered the +2.5 spread in 50% of its games and hit the moneyline in 33%. Pittsburgh holds the better record at 4-2 versus New Orleans at 2-4.
Our Pick
Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh's quarterback carries a B+ matchup grade against a New Orleans defense that ranks 30th against Anytime TDs and Rush Yards and 29th against Rush+Rec Yards, while Shough carries a D+ grade against a Pittsburgh defense ranked 4th against Anytime TDs. Pittsburgh has also covered in 67% of its games. R. Wilson, M. Pittman, and B. Skowronek are all out for the Steelers, but the matchup edge is wide enough that we still like them to cover the short number.
How We Made Our Steelers vs Saints NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Steelers vs Saints NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 7 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.