Patriots vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Bears NFL picks and predictions cover the (4-2) New England Patriots at the (4-2) Chicago Bears on Thursday, October 22nd at 8:15 PM ET. Check out our full Week 7 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Patriots vs Bears NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Chicago is favored at -3 (-104) on the spread with a -153 moneyline, while New England sits at +3 (-104) on the spread and +150 on the moneyline. The total is set at 50.5, with the over priced at -108 and the under at +102 — a tight line for a Thursday night matchup between two 4-2 teams.
Matchup Breakdown
New England's offense grades out above average against Chicago's defense, ranking 7th in both Rush+Rec Yards and Rush Yards, 10th in Pass Yards, 11th in Pass TDs, and 14th in Anytime TDs. Chicago's defense is solid, ranking 7th against Rush+Rec Yards and Rush Yards and 14th against Pass Yards, though it ranks 19th against Pass TDs, and Maye carries a C matchup grade with a projection of 243.8 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns.
Chicago's offense is built on the ground against New England's defense, ranking 1st in Rush Yards, 2nd in Rush TDs, 5th in Rush+Rec Yards, and 7th in Anytime TDs, though it ranks 27th in Pass TDs. New England's defense ranks 6th against Rush+Rec Yards, 7th against Anytime TDs, and 8th against Rush Yards, and C. Williams carries a C matchup grade with a projection of 237.3 passing yards and 1 touchdown.
Injury Report
K. Monangai (CHI) – Sprain, Out (10/16).
M. Hollins (NE) – Calf, Out (10/10).
R. Doubs (NE) – Shoulder, Questionable (10/18).
Betting Trends
New England has covered the +3 spread in 67% of its games and hit the moneyline in 67%, while Chicago has covered the -3 spread in 67% of its games and hit the moneyline in 67%. Both teams hold identical 4-2 records and identical trend numbers, so this one comes down to the matchup grades and the injury report.
Our Pick
Pick: Bears -3. Chicago's offense ranks 1st in Rush Yards and 2nd in Rush TDs against a New England defense that ranks 8th against Rush Yards, and the Bears are the home side in a game where both starting quarterbacks carry C matchup grades. D. Swift projects for 89.7 total yards and 1 touchdown even with K. Monangai out, while New England is missing M. Hollins and has R. Doubs listed as questionable. We like the Bears to cover the short number.
How We Made Our Patriots vs Bears NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Patriots vs Bears NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 7 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.