Packers vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Packers vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions cover the (5-3) Green Bay Packers at the (5-3) New England Patriots on Sunday, November 8th at 4:25 PM ET. Check out our full Week 9 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Packers vs Patriots NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
New England is favored at -3 (-109) on the spread with a -152 moneyline, while Green Bay sits at +3 (+100) on the spread and +153 on the moneyline. The total is set at 46.5, with the over priced at -108 and the under at +100.
Matchup Breakdown
Green Bay's offense is built around the pass against New England's defense, ranking 2nd in Pass Yards at 271.0 and 6th in Pass TDs, but it ranks 16th in Anytime TDs, 18th in Rush+Rec Yards, 29th in Rush TDs, and 32nd in Rush Yards at 60.6. New England's defense ranks 7th against both Rush Yards and Rush+Rec Yards, 9th against Anytime TDs, 10th against Rush TDs, 13th against both Pass Yards and Pass TDs, and J. Love carries a C matchup grade with a projection of 280.8 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions.
New England's offense grades out well against Green Bay's defense, ranking 7th in Pass TDs, 8th in Rush+Rec Yards at 367.3, 11th in Pass Yards, 12th in both Anytime TDs and Rush Yards, and 23rd in Rush TDs. Green Bay's defense ranks 28th against Rush TDs, 15th against Rush Yards, 14th against Anytime TDs, 10th against Rush+Rec Yards, 9th against Pass TDs, and 8th against Pass Yards, and D. Maye carries a D+ matchup grade with a projection of 247.9 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
Injury Report
C. Watson (GB) – Fracture, Questionable (10/30).
C. Brooks (GB) – Ankle, Out (10/10).
S. Moore (GB) – Ankle, Out (10/17).
R. Doubs (NE) – Shoulder, Out (10/19).
M. Hollins (NE) – Calf, Out (10/10).
T. Henderson (NE) – Illness, Out (10/31).
H. Henry (NE) – Foot, Questionable (11/1).
Betting Trends
Green Bay has covered the +2.5 spread in 63% of its games and hit the moneyline in 63%, while New England has covered the -2.5 spread in 63% of its games and hit the moneyline in 63%. Both teams hold the same 5-3 record.
Our Pick
Pick: Packers +2.5 (+111). Green Bay's offense ranks 2nd in Pass Yards and 6th in Pass TDs against a New England defense that ranks 13th against both, and J. Love carries a projection of 280.8 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. New England is missing R. Doubs, M. Hollins, and T. Henderson, and with both teams at 5-3 and covering at the same 63% rate, we like the Packers getting points at plus-money.
How We Made Our Packers vs Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Packers vs Patriots NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 9 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.