Cowboys vs Colts NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Cowboys vs Colts NFL picks and predictions cover the (3-5) Dallas Cowboys at the (2-6) Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 8th at 1:00 PM ET. Check out our full Week 9 NFL Schedule for odds and predictions on every game this week.
All of the odds, matchup grades, injury data, and betting trends referenced below come from HOF's sports betting research app, which tracks live lines and team/player data to help bettors make more informed decisions. For our top touchdown scorer prop picks and DFS plays in this game, check out our Cowboys vs Colts NFL Player Props and DFS Picks article.
Table of Contents
Odds
Dallas is favored at -5.5 (-107) on the spread with a -245 moneyline, while Indianapolis sits at +5.5 (+104) on the spread and +228 on the moneyline. The total is set at 51.5, with the over priced at -108 and the under at -108.
Matchup Breakdown
Dallas' offense grades out well against Indianapolis' defense, ranking 6th in Anytime TDs, 8th in Rush TDs, 9th in Pass Yards, 11th in Pass TDs, 14th in Rush+Rec Yards, and 25th in Rush Yards. Indianapolis' defense ranks 12th against Pass Yards, but it ranks 20th against Rush TDs, 22nd against Rush+Rec Yards, 24th against Pass TDs, 25th against Anytime TDs, and 27th against Rush Yards, and D. Prescott carries a C- matchup grade with a projection of 255.8 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions.
Indianapolis' offense faces a Dallas defense that is among the weakest in the league against the run, and it ranks 7th in Rush TDs and 16th in Rush Yards, though it ranks 26th in Rush+Rec Yards, 27th in Anytime TDs, 28th in Pass Yards, and 32nd in Pass TDs at 0.6. Dallas' defense ranks 32nd against both Rush+Rec Yards at 385.4 and Rush Yards at 152.8, 26th against Anytime TDs, 25th against Pass TDs, 24th against Rush TDs, and 22nd against Pass Yards, and D. Jones carries a B matchup grade with a projection of 192.8 passing yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions.
Injury Report
K. Turpin (DAL) – Ribs, Out (10/30).
L. Schoonmaker (DAL) – Groin, Out (11/1).
J. Ferguson (DAL) – Sprain, Questionable (11/1).
A. Gould (IND) – Concussion, Out (10/30).
A. Pierce (IND) – Heel, Out (10/26).
Betting Trends
Dallas has covered the -5.5 spread in 25% of its games and hit the moneyline in 38%, while Indianapolis has covered the +5.5 spread in 38% of its games and hit the moneyline in 25%. Dallas holds the better record at 3-5 versus Indianapolis's 2-6.
Our Pick
Pick: Over 51.5 (-108). Dallas' defense ranks 32nd against both Rush+Rec Yards and Rush Yards, 26th against Anytime TDs, and 25th against Pass TDs, while Indianapolis' defense ranks 22nd against Rush+Rec Yards, 25th against Anytime TDs, and 24th against Pass TDs. Dallas' offense ranks 6th in Anytime TDs, and with two weak defenses on the field, we like this game to clear one of the higher totals of the week.
How We Made Our Cowboys vs Colts NFL Picks and Predictions
Our Cowboys vs Colts NFL picks and predictions are built directly from HOF's sports betting research app rather than gut feel or outside commentary. For every Week 9 matchup, we start with HOF's live point spread, moneyline, and total, then layer in the team grades HOF assigns across offense and defense to see where a real statistical edge exists. From there, we cross-reference HOF's injury report to confirm which players are active, questionable, or out, since a single absence can shift a matchup grade significantly.
We also check HOF's betting trends data — how each team has performed against the spread and the total recently — to see whether the market is lining up with or against the statistical picture. Only after weighing the odds, the matchup grades, the injury report, and the betting trends together do we land on the spread, moneyline, or total pick we publish here. We don't publish a pick without a clear data-backed reason behind it, and we update our numbers as HOF's app updates its own lines and grades throughout the week.
Because lines and injury designations can move between now and kickoff, we recommend checking HOF's app for the latest numbers before placing any wager. A pick that looks strong at one number can lose its edge at another, so the price you can get matters just as much as the side you like.