Sports betting involves more than just picking winners; it requires a deep understanding of odds and probabilities. One crucial concept every bettor should grasp is implied probability. Knowing what implied probability is and how to calculate it can significantly improve your betting strategy and decision-making process. This article will explain the concept of implied probability in sports betting, its importance, and how to use it to your advantage.
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that represents the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. It provides a way to understand what the odds are suggesting about the chances of an event happening.
Implied probability can be calculated from various types of odds, including decimal, fractional, and American odds.
To convert decimal odds to implied probability:
Implied Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) * 100
For example, if the decimal odds are 2.50:
Implied Probability = (1 / 2.50) * 100 = 40%
To convert fractional odds to implied probability:
Implied Probability = (Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator)) * 100
For example, if the fractional odds are 3/1:
Implied Probability = (1 / (3 + 1)) * 100 = 25%
For positive American odds:
Implied Probability = (100 / (Odds + 100)) * 100
For negative American odds:
Implied Probability = (Odds / (Odds – 100)) * 100
For example, if the American odds are +200:
Implied Probability = (100 / (200 + 100)) * 100 = 33.33%
And if the American odds are -150:
Implied Probability = (Odds / (-150 – 100)) * 100 = 60%
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Understanding implied probability helps bettors to:
Example 1: The Phillies are favored to win tonight against the Cleveland Guardians and their moneyline odds are -192. That means that their implied probability of winning would be:
Implied Probability = (-192 / (-192 – 100)) * 100 = 65.75%
If you believe the team has a greater chance of winning, this bet might offer value.
Example 2: The odds for Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run for the Dodgers tonight is currently set at +475, which means that the implied odds for this bet would be:
Implied Probability = (100 / (475 + 100)) * 100 = 17.39%
If you find his odds to less than this, this might not be a value bet.
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that indicates the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring.
To calculate implied probability from decimal odds, divide 1 by the decimal odds and multiply by 100.
Understanding implied probability helps bettors assess value, manage risk, and make more informed betting decisions.
Yes, implied probability can be used in live betting to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes as the game progresses.
Common mistakes include ignoring the sportsbook’s margin (vig), overestimating probabilities, and chasing high odds without proper assessment.
Improve by conducting thorough research, using betting calculators, comparing odds across sportsbooks, and combining implied probability with expected value calculations.
Understanding what implied probability is and how to calculate it is crucial for any serious sports bettor. By mastering this concept, you can make more informed betting decisions, identify value bets, and improve your overall betting strategy. Always base your bets on thorough research, realistic probability assessments, and a strategic approach to maximize your chances of success.
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