Every bettor, whether novice or seasoned, aims to understand where value lies. In the dynamic world of sports betting, implied odds provide an analytical perspective into the probability assigned by a bookmaker to a particular outcome. But what exactly are implied odds? Let’s delve deeper.
Implied odds are a conversion of betting odds into a percentage, representing the bookmaker's estimation of a particular event occurring. Essentially, it's the reverse of what most bettors do – instead of determining what odds they should receive for a wager, they're deciphering what the offered odds suggest about the outcome's likelihood.
Positive Odds (+):
Implied Probability = 100 / (American Odds + 100)
Example: If you have American Odds of +200:
Implied Probability = 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33%
Negative Odds (-):
Implied Probability = -American Odds / (-American Odds + 100)
Example if the American Odds are -150:
Implied Probability = -150 / (-150 + 100) = 60%
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
Example if the Decimal Odds are 1.50:
Implied Probability = 1 / 1.50 = 66.67%
1. Finding Value:
By understanding implied odds, bettors can compare their assessment of an event's likelihood to that of the bookmaker's. If your perceived probability is significantly different from the implied odds, there might be value in that bet.
2. Understanding Bookmaker Margins:
No implied probability will ever be 100% accurate due to vig or juice – the cut that a book takes from a bet. Recognizing this discrepancy can provide insights into the margins set by bookmakers.
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While implied odds are a great tool, they aren't infallible.
1. Not Always Accurate: Bookmakers sometimes adjust odds based on the weight of money rather than the actual likelihood of an event. This can distort the true probability.
2. Overround Effect: Implied probabilities from all possible outcomes of an event sum to a value greater than 100%, due to the bookmaker's margin. Always account for this overround when making decisions.
1. Stay Updated: Keeping tabs on team news, recent forms, and other pertinent information helps in forming a personal assessment, which can then be compared with the implied odds.
2. Diversify: Use implied odds in tandem with other analytical tools and methodologies. No single tool can consistently predict outcomes.
3. Shop Around: Different bookmakers have different implied odds. It's beneficial to have accounts on multiple platforms and compare the odds to find the best value.
Implied odds are at the core of nearly all the tools that Hall of Fame Bets offers. Combining powerful data analytics with a simple user interface to make all your betting research easier, Hall of Fame Bets is the premier sports betting analytics research platform. Using our platform, you can seamlessly filter through data for teams and players alike to provide insight into past performances in order to find value in matchups and make smarter bets.
To exemplify how our platform uses implied odds to make your research process easier, let’s take an upcoming player prop from an MLB game. We will look at Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers to hit a home run.
As you can see, this prop is being offered for odds of +350. Utilizing our earlier formula, we can see that this gives this bet implied odds of 22.2% for hitting, meaning that the book thinks this has about a one in five shot of occuring. Looking at the performance of Garcia this season utilizing our Deep Stats tool, we can see that this line is pretty accurately set as Garcia has hit a home run in 22% of his games this season.
In this case, the book is actually offering up a bit of value, as looking strictly at stats, Garcia is a bit under what these odds would imply. By clicking the button to Show Implied Odds, our platform will automatically show you the odds for each time span and when applying filters, which can be a fantastic method for discovering value on bets. Selecting this option, we can confirm that the implied odds of the bet are lower than what his stats should suggest.
However, we know that there are always more factors that one should consider when looking at a bet and likewise, a sportsbook will consider various factors when pricing a line. For this, we will look at Garcia’s performance at home as that is where he will be playing and to get a better idea of his recent form, we will look at just his last twenty games.
When focusing on these factors, we can see that his recent performance would imply odds closer to +180 and a hit rate of 36%, meaning that this could potentially be a great value bet as this would deliver an edge of +14% – meaning that there is a 14% difference between the hit rate the book is suggesting versus the odds our data shows.
This is just one of the many amazing tools our platform offers and is a sure-fire method for filtering through the plethora of data that goes into sports and sports betting. Hall of Fame Bets is designed to make your betting research easier just like this!
Understanding and effectively using implied odds is an art combined with analytical prowess. By integrating them into your betting strategies, you're equipped with one more tool in your arsenal to locate value and make informed decisions.
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All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.