NBA Playoff Trends & Stats for Player Prop Bets: High Hit Rates in Last 5
05/14/26
Julius Randle under 3.5 assists – Friday, May 15th MIN Timberwolves vs SA Spurs
Randle has a tough matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. This prop line has hit in 100% of his last five games. Looking at his head-to-head matchups this season, this prop has only failed to hit four times, and the last time it hit was in January 2026 when facing the San Antonio Spurs.
Jarrett Allen under 1.5 1st Qtr rebounds – Friday, May 15th DET Pistons vs CLE Cavaliers
While Jarrett Allen has an A matchup grade, the NBA 1st quarter stats shows that in Allens last 10 games (L10), he has a struggled to reach over 1.5 rebounds 70% (hit rate) of the time, meaning he only reached this line three times in the last 10, alongside an L5 – 100% hit rate. Looking head-to-head specifically, meaning any time the Detroit Pistons have played the Cavs, Jarrett Allen has cleared this under in the last six matchups against the Pistons, including the most recent five in the playoffs.
Naz Reid with over 1.5 1st Qtr rebounds – Friday, May 15th MIN Timberwolves vs SA Spurs
Naz Reid's 100% hit rate in his last five games is obviously why he is included in this choice. But additionally, when looking at Reids head-to-head rate, he is smashing the over at least 67% of the time with an average of 1.8 rebounds when looking at his 1st quarter stats across his entire head-to-head history facing the San Antonio Spurs this season.
De'Aaron Fox under 9.5 rebounds and assists – Friday, May 15th MIN Timberwolves vs SA Spurs
De'Aaron Fox has a D- matchup grade, meaning this matchup does not look very good for him. This presents a strong opportunity when looking for under 9.5 rebounds and assists. In his last five games, he has had no issue meeting this under. He has averaged 7 in his last five games and 8.9 across his last 10, coming close to that 9 line but still falling short. This supports the choice of De'Aaron Fox under 9.5 rebounds plus assists.
Dylan Harper over 3.5 rebounds – MIN Timberwolves vs SA Spurs
This has hit in 7 of his last 10 games and 100% in his last five, with an average of 6.4 rebounds per game in that five-game span. This is an obvious choice, as this player is performing exceptionally well in the NBA playoffs, which is also supported by a C matchup grade.
