Week 15 NFL Player Props and Parlays: MNF
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Week 15 NFL Player Props and Parlays: MNF

12/17/23
Week 15 NFL Player Props and Parlays: MNF

Welcome to the dynamic realm of NFL sports betting! Are you eager to delve into NFL player props? You've landed in the perfect spot! Whether you're a casual fan or an experienced gambler, we've got you covered. Join us as we unravel the intricate world of player props in football. We're here to arm you with key insights that could sharpen your betting strategies. So, strap in for a revealing exploration of the NFL and get ready to view the game from an insider's perspective. Let's jump in and discover together!

What are Player Prop Bets?

Player prop bets, often called “props,” focus on individual players' actions rather than the overall game result. They're popular in various sports, especially in football. In the NFL, these bets zoom in on specific player achievements like a quarterback's touchdowns, a running back's total yards, or a receiver's catches.

You'll find two kinds of NFL player props. The first, statistical props, involve actual game numbers—think touchdowns or yards. The second, non-statistical props, include bets like whether a player will score the first touchdown.

Looking for a place to try these out? Head over to a major sportsbook. For instance, DraftKings Sportsbook offers a menu of bets for any NFL game. If you're interested in taking plays like these, check out the TD Scorers tab for various scoring options. If stats are more your thing, the Rush/Rec Props tab will guide you to bets on carries, receptions, or total yards. These prop bets add a thrilling layer to NFL game-watching, as fans and bettors focus on individual players' achievements.

The Lineup for Today:

We are back with another wonderful Monday Night Football matchup, this time showcasing two of last year’s NFC playoff teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams are firmly seated in the playoff hunt again this year, with the Eagles coming in at 10-3 and the Seahawks barely outside at 6-7. After a dominant start to the year, the Eagles have faltered over the past few games, losing back-to-back games in the middle of the toughest stretch of their season. They will look to get things back on track today, but will potentially be without their star quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is questionable as of the time of writing with an illness. The Seahawks are on a four-game skid, losing their last two games to the same teams as the Eagles have. After a strong start to the year, the Seahawks are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt, currently missing out due to a tie-breaker with other teams at the same record. Today, we are taking a running back to continue his consistent streak, particularly if Hurts is not available, a defensive end to dominate, a tight end to excel in his role, and a same-game parlay that has been on fire over the last month. Though we are suggesting these as individual NFL Player Props, they do line up incredibly well if you are interested in playing them together as a parlay. Over the last three games, this parlay has hit 67% of the time, meaning that there is a great shot for it to occur again tonight.

Kenneth Gainwell o13.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (DK) | NFL Player Props

In one of the elite rushing attacks in the league, Gainwell is an essential but limited commodity. Sitting behind both Swift and Hurts in terms of his role, what he lacks for carries, he makes up for in consistency. The backup running back does well with his limited opportunities and the numbers speak for themselves: over the last three weeks, Gainwell has hit this line in two out of his last three games, averaging nearly twenty yards during that stretch.

There are two additional benefits for Gainwell coming into this game: Hurts potentially missing the game and the matchup he faces in the Seahawks rushing defense. If Hurts is not available to go, Gainwell would gain plenty of touches as the Eagles would likely turn to more a rushing-focused attack and the need to fill in Hurts’ touches. Even if he is healthy, it would be likely that he would not run as much, meaning Gainwell would still be likely to have more touches. Regardless of whether or not this is the case, his matchup against the Seahawks is promising: Seattle is ranked 23rd in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed, giving up 123.4 yards per game. With so much going for him and a great track record of hitting this line this year, back Gainwell to hit this line again.

Leonard Williams o1.5 Tackles (-145) (DK) | NFL Player Props

Moving over the defensive side of the ball, we are focusing on an edge rusher who has found a great run of form over the past several weeks in Leonard Williams. The former Jets and Giants player has performed spectacularly since being traded to the Seahawks near the trade deadline, putting up great numbers both rushing the quarterback and stopping the run. Over his last five weeks, Williams has hit this number in all five, recording two tackles in each game.

In a game against a rushing-dominant team such as the Eagles, Williams should be in on the action more often than pressuring the quarterback, giving him ample opportunities to record tackles. This year he has stepped up to the level of competition he faces incredibly well: when facing off against top-quartile offenses such as the Eagles, Williams has hit this line in 5 out of 6 games, notably recording four tackles in two of those games. With a prime matchup, expect the veteran to perform yet again and hit this line.

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Noah Fant o21.5 Receiving Yards (-120) (DK) | NFL Player Props

Seattle has a great amount of weapons on their offense, both in their passing game and in their running game. An essential component of both, Fant has quietly put up great numbers for the Seahawks, who should be looking to take advantage of the weaker secondary of the Eagles, rather than their dominant rushing defense. Though he does not hit the lofty numbers of many of the elite tight ends in the league, he has managed to consistently hit solid numbers all year. Over his last three games, Fant has hit this number in all three, averaging over 34 yards per game in that period.

The Eagles may have one of the most talented teams in football, but their weak spot is in their secondary, something that should greatly improve Fant’s odds of hitting this line. The Eagles have allowed over 50 yards per game to tight ends, ranking them 21st in the NFL, while ranking 28th overall in receiving yards per game at over 250. This should point towards how Seattle will attack them and should benefit Fant’s role in this game, giving him a great chance to go over yet again.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks (-130) | Same Game Parlay

This play will focus on some of the unheralded heroes for both of these teams: first DeVonta Smith to record at least 50 receiving yards and then Jaxon Smith-Njibga to record 25 receiving yards. Smith had a slower start to the year but has really picked things up as of late, steadily increasing his presence within the Eagles passing game. Though he still is clearly second behind A.J. Brown, Smith benefits greatly from the gravity that Brown has in coverage, particularly given that Smith primarily runs shallower crossing routes compared to the more vertical routes of Brown. This is a number he has hit with great frequency as of late and is one that should easily be within reach for the Heisman winner. On the other side of the ball, JSN has blossomed later on in the season, taking full advantage of other Seattle wideouts missing time. He has become a much more frequent target of Geno Smith and has hit this number every single week over the past month or so. Both receivers are core pieces of their offenses and in a game that has a lot of potential playoff implications, the intensity should produce a great offensive game, giving both players plenty of chances to hit their legs.

In review, we are taking:

  1. DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards
  2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 25+ Receiving Yards

This is currently being offered for -125 on DraftKings, but running it through our parlay optimizer, this parlay has been perfect, over the last three games.

If you prefer to look out over a longer period of time, this parlay has hit in 100% of the last five games.

Looking at the entire year when filtering by similar defenses, this bet has still hit in a fantastic 67% of games, giving it implied odds of -200.

Why Bet on NFL Player Props?

Why engage in NFL player prop betting? It injects an extra thrill into football viewing. Unlike standard bets on teams, player props dive into the actual performances on the field. They offer more predictability and are less swayed by the crowd's opinion. With a deep understanding of a player's capabilities, you can use your insights effectively. Plus, it heightens the excitement of each game, as every action could tip the scales of your wager. Remember, responsible betting is key, but enjoy the additional excitement that player props bring to each NFL game.

In wrapping up, NFL player prop bets offer an interactive, personalized touch to professional football. They allow enthusiasts to go beyond scores, focusing on player stats and performances. These bets are not only thrilling but can also be quite rewarding for those who find the market's sweet spots. As a significant force in today's sports betting scene, a firm grasp of NFL player props is a must-have for any serious bettor or football fan. Stay informed, research thoroughly, and you may find player props to be both enjoyable and profitably engaging. Always bet with your head, not over it.

Strategies for Selecting Winning NFL Player Prop Bets

Embarking on the journey of NFL player prop betting requires a blend of skill, insight, and strategy. Here are key tactics to help you navigate this exciting landscape and make informed bets:

  • Player Performance Analysis: Delve into recent performances of players. Consider factors like injuries, recovery status, and consistency. A player on a hot streak or facing a weaker defense could be a lucrative bet.
  • Matchup Assessments: Evaluate the matchups carefully. A star running back facing the league's top rushing defense might not hit their average yardage. Conversely, a top receiver against a team with weak secondary defense might exceed expectations.
  • Weather and Conditions: The weather can significantly affect player performance, especially for outdoor games. High winds can limit passing games, while rain can make it tough for receivers to catch long passes.
  • Historical Trends: Look at historical data. Some players may have a history of performing exceptionally well or poorly against certain teams or in particular situations.
  • Coaching Strategies: Stay updated on team strategies. Coaching decisions can influence a player's opportunity to perform, like a shift towards a more aggressive passing game which could mean more targets for receivers.
  • In-Game Scenarios: Consider the context of the game. A team that's ahead may run the ball more to keep the clock moving, benefiting running backs' props like total rushing yards.
  • Bankroll Management: Keep your bankroll in check. Don't place all your funds on one prop; diversify your bets to manage risk.
  • Line Shopping: Compare odds across different sportsbooks. Even small differences can be significant over time, so shop for the best lines for your chosen props.
  • Timing Your Bets: Monitor line movements. Placing your bet at the right time, when the lines are most favorable, can be as crucial as the bet itself.
  • Keeping an Eye on the News: Injuries, trades, and team news can all affect props. Keep an eye on updates right up to game time to catch any critical changes.

By incorporating these strategies into your betting routine, you can boost your chances of finding valuable bets and making your NFL viewing experience even more thrilling.

Remember, the key to successful prop betting is research and disciplined wagering. Use the insights gained from these strategies to place smart, informed bets. With practice and patience, you could enhance your NFL player prop betting game.

Take the question out of betting research with HOF Bets. Optimize your bets using sports betting analytics like these and many more, available on our platform at hofbets.com or by downloading our new iOS app here. Get started with us today for the best player prop and sports betting research. All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.