Welcome to the dynamic realm of NFL sports betting! Are you eager to delve into NFL player props? You've landed in the perfect spot! Whether you're a casual fan or an experienced gambler, we've got you covered. Join us as we unravel the intricate world of player props in football. We're here to arm you with key insights that could sharpen your betting strategies. So, strap in for a revealing exploration of the NFL and get ready to view the game from an insider's perspective. Let's jump in and discover together!
Player prop bets, often called “props,” focus on individual players' actions rather than the overall game result. They're popular in various sports, especially in football. In the NFL, these bets zoom in on specific player achievements like a quarterback's touchdowns, a running back's total yards, or a receiver's catches.
You'll find two kinds of NFL player props. The first, statistical props, involve actual game numbers—think touchdowns or yards. The second, non-statistical props, include bets like whether a player will score the first touchdown.
Looking for a place to try these out? Head over to a major sportsbook. For instance, DraftKings Sportsbook offers a menu of bets for any NFL game. To see options like this, check out the TD Scorers tab for various scoring options.
If stats are more your thing, the Rush/Rec Props tab will guide you to bets on carries, receptions, or total yards. These prop bets add a thrilling layer to NFL game-watching, as fans and bettors focus on individual players' achievements.
We have yet another great slate of games, starting with the Bills hosting the Jets, Tampa Bay at the 49ers, the Chargers visiting the Packers, and finishing off with the Bears at the Lions. In our lineup for the day, we are showing some love to tight ends by taking two of them to go over, a veteran receiver to stay under a lofty projection, and finally, a same-game parlay featuring one of the strongest offenses in the entire NFL. Though we are suggesting these as individual NFL Player Props, they do line up incredibly well if you are interested in playing them together as a parlay. DraftKings has this parlay with odds of +1651, but over the past three games, this mega-parlay has hit 67% of the time, giving it implied odds of -200.
Dalton Kincaid o48.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (DK) | NFL Player Prop
Kincaid has had a great resurgence over the last few weeks, putting up a string of impressive performances, despite the relative struggles of his team in the same time frame. Despite being some of the favorites in the AFC this year, the Bills have struggled and find themselves sitting at 5-5 heading into this game, but it seems that Kincaid’s performances have been solid whether his team is winning or losing. Over the last four games, the tight end has hit this line every single time, giving him a great streak coming into this matchup.
A considerable boost to his performance has been the absence of Dawson Knox, one of the other tight ends on the Bills roster. In his absence, Kincaid has stepped up his numbers significantly, hitting this line in all three games. With more looks, Kincaid has taken his opportunities well and has become one of the go-to guys for Josh Allen.
In this stretch, he has been putting up numbers well above this line, averaging 65.7 yards per game. With the line set nearly 20 yards below this, his average performance should be more than enough for him to continue his streak and hit his number once again in this game.
George Kittle o44.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (DK) | NFL Player Prop
With the treasure trove of talents that the 49ers possess on both sides of the ball, it feels like Kittle sometimes becomes one of the forgotten commodities, but over the past few weeks, the tight end has shown flashes of the dynamic player we have all come to know and love. In his past five games, the tight end has put up remarkable numbers, hitting this line in four out of five and three straight. Notably, he has been over the 100-yard mark in back-to-back weeks, establishing himself as one of the primary threats of the 49ers passing attack moving forward.
Luckily for Kittle, his next matchup presents a fantastic opportunity to sky towards these astronomical numbers yet again. The 49ers have one of the weaker secondaries in the entire NFL, ranking 31st overall in terms of yards allowed overall. They are also particularly weak matching up against tight ends, allowing 56.3 yards per game so far this year. With his meteoric rise over the past few weeks and the fantastic matchup he has heading into this game, Kittle should be well on his way to hitting this line yet again this week.
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Keenan Allen u85.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (DK) | NFL Player Prop
While it feels disrespectful to take an under for such a talented receiver, this line requires a bit of nuance. Allen has been putting up sensational numbers all year, as indicated by his line here, but looking more closely at the numbers, he has struggled this year to break this threshold. In his ten games played this year, Allen has been under this line a staggering seven times. While it is of note that when he does break this number, he breaks it by a considerable amount, over the course of the entire year, this line stands well against him.
Another key factor in favor of the under on this line is the team he is matching up against. Despite their relative struggles this year, the Packers are statistically one of the best pass defenses in the entire league, ranking 4th in the NFL and only allowing 125.9 yards to wideouts. The Packers are hoping to get All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander back for this game, which would give the Chargers receiver an even tougher matchup.
Notably, Allen has struggled more against this line when coming up against stronger defenses. When matched up against above-average defenses such as the Packers, Allen has been under this line in 75% of his games, which should be a good indication of where things are likely going in this matchup. While Allen is a truly talented receiver, the factors going against him here make the under a great line.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+168) | Same Game Parlay
We are going to be featuring one parlay which we believe has great upside potential for this slate. This week we are going to look at the Chicago Bears heading to the Detroit Lions. We are taking a two-leg parlay, starting with Amon-Ra St. Brown recording at least 80 yards, then adding Jahmyr Gibbs to have at least 40 rushing yards. Detroit have established themselves as one of the strongest teams in the entire league this season, boasting some of the most talented skill position players of any unit, lead in large part by these two players. St. Brown is having a career season, blowing defenses away week in and week out. In his two games against the Bears last year, St. Brown averaged over 90 yards a game, which is somehow still under his average for this season, standing at a stunning 102.6 yards. However, the true strength of this Detroit team lies in their elite rushing attack, featuring both Gibbs and David Montgomery. Over the past few weeks, Gibbs has emerged as the feature back and whether or not this continues, he should have a great chance of going over this line with how strong their offensive line is. Detroit should be able to dismantle the Bears in this matchup and these two players and lines should be a key part of that.
In review, we are taking:
This is currently being offered for +168 on DraftKings, but running it through our parlay optimizer, over the last three games, this parlay has hit 100% of the time.
If you prefer to look at a longer time horizon, this bet has also hit in all of the last five games.
Looking at the entire year, this bet has still hit in a resounding 71% of games, giving it implied odds of -250.
Why engage in NFL player prop betting? It injects an extra thrill into football viewing. Unlike standard bets on teams, player props dive into the actual performances on the field. They offer more predictability and are less swayed by the crowd's opinion. With a deep understanding of a player's capabilities, you can use your insights effectively. Plus, it heightens the excitement of each game, as every action could tip the scales of your wager. Remember, responsible betting is key, but enjoy the additional excitement that player props bring to each NFL game.
In wrapping up, NFL player prop bets offer an interactive, personalized touch to professional football. They allow enthusiasts to go beyond scores, focusing on player stats and performances. These bets are not only thrilling but can also be quite rewarding for those who find the market's sweet spots. As a significant force in today's sports betting scene, a firm grasp of NFL player props is a must-have for any serious bettor or football fan. Stay informed, research thoroughly, and you may find player props to be both enjoyable and profitably engaging. Always bet with your head, not over it.
Strategies for Selecting Winning NFL Player Prop Bets
Embarking on the journey of NFL player prop betting requires a blend of skill, insight, and strategy. Here are key tactics to help you navigate this exciting landscape and make informed bets:
By incorporating these strategies into your betting routine, you can boost your chances of finding valuable bets and making your NFL viewing experience even more thrilling.
Remember, the key to successful prop betting is research and disciplined wagering. Use the insights gained from these strategies to place smart, informed bets. With practice and patience, you could enhance your NFL player prop betting game.
Take the question out of betting research with HOF Bets. Optimize your bets using sports betting analytics like these and many more, available on our platform at hofbets.com or by downloading our new iOS app here. Get started with us today for the best player prop and sports betting research. All odds in this article are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
